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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Sunday, April 6, 2008

Isle leaders must consider new economic review

The question for the short term isn't whether the state's economy is in decline, it's whether anything can be done to cushion the landing.

In a state so dependent on tourism, the departure of not one but two major airlines in a single week has sent tremors through the community, initially because of the loss of roughly 2,000 jobs but also because of the ripple effect that could result.

State officials project that the closures of Aloha and ATA passenger services will mean 500,000 fewer visitors spending their vacation savings here, a hit that would be felt by small businesses reliant on tourist revenue.

With the annual visitor count up around 7 million, potentially losing half a million of them would produce quite a shock.

The state has taken the correct path at the start by dispatching emergency response teams to shepherd the newly jobless toward unemployment and healthcare benefits and toward leads for new jobs.

For the stranded passengers, the Hawai'i Tourism Authority has invested money in getting them back home — a sensible, image-enhancing expenditure, given the extreme circumstances. As HTA President Rex Johnson correctly observed, "it would scare a few travelers if you had to go that far away from home and you couldn't get home."

But once the immediate fires are put out, then what?

At the risk of eliciting groans from economists who are weary of such things, a business roundtable would be helpful in reviewing the state's economic needs and moving purposefully toward a more robust future.

The Lingle administration has embraced such meetings of the minds in the past, including the Economic Momentum Commission of 2005. That commission aimed to enhance the state's economic vitality and quality of life with a raft of recommendations, including changes to encourage affordable housing through streamlined government processes; develop the workforce for a more diverse economy; and to make improvements, at the airport and elsewhere, that would help attract repeat, higher-end visitors.

There has been some progress in these directions, but in light of recent events, the blueprint bears another look, and revision. It's no longer about keeping the momentum; now it's about revving up the faltering engine. The University of Hawai'i Economic Research Organization recently issued its annual economic forecast — compiled even before the closure of the airlines — and projected that visitor arrivals wouldn't begin recovery until 2010.

The state has anticipated the downturn and already is making adjustments, and that's good. Marketing of the Islands has targeted the Chinese, who are expected to be traveling in far greater numbers, and South Korea, which is expected to benefit from a visa-waiver program by year's end. But it won't be enough.

At the very least, the leaders of government and business should discuss whether we're doing everything possible to capitalize on our appeal to foreign travelers. And there are issues beyond tourism to discuss, now that the signs of an economic recession have become more foreboding.

That conversation needs to begin anew, and soon.