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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted at 12:31 a.m., Friday, April 18, 2008

Fantasy Baseball: It pays to forgive and forget

By BILL KONIGSBERG
AP Sports Writer

Rafael Furcal, we forgive you.

Even though you ruined last summer for many fantasy owners, despite the fact that we kept waiting for you to start hitting and stealing bases and you never did, we're ready to give you another shot.

So what if we drafted you early and you finished last season with nearly identical numbers to the Twins' Jason Bartlett, hitting a pedestrian .270 with six homers and 25 steals?

We haven't forgotten, but we've forgiven and are ready to trust you again.

The adage "fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me" doesn't really work for fantasy baseball. If you refuse to draft players who have disappointed at some point, most major leaguers would be ruled out.

So open your heart again to Furcal, who put together four stellar seasons before a sub-par one last year and appears to be hitting the stuffing out of baseballs for Los Angeles.

And if he fools you twice, shame on me.

FORGIVE AND FORGET

Raul Ibanez, OF, Mariners

Fantasy owners seem lukewarm on Ibanez (.323-5-15), who burned many last season by hitting just six homers through July. Ibanez was dropped in most leagues, and proceeded to hit 15 home runs with an average above .350 the rest of the way. Another way to look at that is Ibanez has now put together three straight standout months, and is the same guy who hit 33 homers and drove in 123 runs in 2006. If you can get him cheap in a trade, do so immediately.

Vernon Wells, OF, Blue Jays

It's time to consider Wells (.328-3-15) an elite outfielder again. He had a terrible 2007, hitting .245 with 16 homers a year after hitting over .300 with twice as many long balls. Wells had shoulder surgery in the offseason and has acknowledged he played through pain last year. Healthy again, he's been among the toughest batters to put away this season, hitting .364 with a league leading 10 RBIs with two strikes. Wells is not just a very good player; he's a possible MVP candidate. He'll be hard to dislodge in a trade, but completely worth it if you succeed.

Corey Patterson, OF, Reds

Of all the impressive things about Patterson's start, here is the most stunning: the free-swinger had struck out just three times in his first 50 at-bats. This is the same guy who whiffed 168 times in 2004, while with the Chicago Cubs. His .220 average is bound to go up given his contact rate, and his four home runs are a sign of his natural power. Yes, he's had some poor seasons, but he's also had some great ones, like in 2006, when he stole 45 bases and hit 16 homers in his first season in Baltimore. Maybe he likes new beginnings; this is his first season in Cincinnati.

Jake Westbrook, RHP, Indians

Throw out the 18 scoreless innings in spring training, that's simply not important. I am a believer in Westbrook's revival. Here's why: once the regular season came around, he continued to pound the strike zone and has been consistently impressive in each of his three starts, with a 2.33 ERA and just four walks in 22 2-3 innings. The Indians will start hitting and winning more games, and his win total will benefit because he's going deep into games. He's looking more and more like Tim Hudson, and Hudson-like numbers are possible.

SIMPLY FORGET

Gabe Kapler, OF, Brewers

He's a spectacular early season story. The 32-year-old outfielder was a minor league coach in the Red Sox organization last season, came out of retirement, won a roster spot in Milwaukee, and is among the early leaders in batting average (.423), home runs (4) and RBIs (11). Who wouldn't root for a guy like that? But the truth is, he's only starting until Mike Cameron returns from his suspension at the end of the month. Kapler could be a nice bench guy for the Brewers this year, but he's unlikely to do enough to help your fantasy team.

Kevin Millwood, RHP, Rangers

Repeat after me: Kevin Millwood is no longer a good fantasy pitcher. A quick look shows Millwood has a 2.42 ERA through four starts, but even with that great start, his WHIP is 1.46 and that's the sign of a pitcher who allows too many base runners. He has just 12 strikeouts and pitches for the Rangers, who aren't exactly a lock to win a lot of games. So why would you be taking him off the waiver wire? To keep your ERA down? If that's what you're betting on with Millwood, I have a few other bets for you.

Notes: Angels 1B Casey Kotchman is beginning to look like the hitter he was hyped to be coming into the majors. The 25-year-old is one of baseball's best contact hitters and has shown surprising power (four homers in 58 at-bats) this season. He's struck out just three times. He's a good add for your corner infield spot. ... RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka was tough on lefties last year (.238 opposing BA), but this year's he's simply unhittable for left-handed batters, holding them to a .132 average and striking out 16 of the 48 he's faced.