While the Miami Dolphins appear to be inching closer to wrapping up Michigan tackle Jake Long before taking him with their first pick in Saturday's draft, they apparently are opting for the safer selection, rather than the flashier one.

Over the past dozen years, teams are hitting far more home runs by taking mammoth offensive tackles with their top pick, rather than striking out with pass-rushing defensive ends such as Courtney Brown, the No. 1 pick by the Browns in 2000. Still, many draft pundits have Virginia defensive end Chris Long at the top of their mock drafts.

"The thing about left tackle is that it is a `must' position in this league," Texans coach Gary Kubiak said. "You've got to protect your quarterback; you've got to protect your franchise, so to speak. And those guys are hard — hard — to find. I mean, they don't fall off of trees. They're a special breed."

Kubiak omitted that he's already got a premier pass rusher in defensive end Mario Williams, the highly criticized No. 1 pick in 2006 who busted out with 14 sacks last season.

While quarterbacks generally lead the league in draft busts, defensive ends and off tackles have had their shares of flameouts. Brown never fulfilled his promise after a decent rookie season. Tackles Tony Mandarich and Robert Gallery were both taken at No. 2, Mandarich by the Packers in 1989 and Gallery by the Raiders in 2004. Along with former Bills No. 4 pick Mike Williams in 2002, the trio are all considered major flops.

That said, there's a long list of cornerstone left tackles who have been taken early in the draft, starting with Orlando Pace (No. 1 in 1997), Jonathan Ogden (No. 4 in 1996) and Walter Jones (No. 6 in 1997). The Redskins struck gold with Chris Samuels in 2000 (No. 3).

"You better have someone who could rush the passer, but you've got to draft offensive linemen all the time," said former Packers GM Ron Wolf, who spent first-round picks on left tackles in `96 and `97. "It's the only position I know if you don't have five you can't play. You better have a cadre of linemen, because they're good for everything."

Eight tackles have been taken in the top 10 over the past decade, with mixed results. Most recently, former Wisconsin left tackle Joe Thomas was taken No. 3 by the Browns last season. He started in the Pro Bowl as a rookie and was largely responsible for the success of unheralded quarterback Derek Anderson and Cleveland's dramatic turnaround from 4-12 to 10-6.

"I think by the way Joe played last year, and the impact he had for us ... it had a residual effect on our football team," said Browns General Manager Phil Savage. "If you can fix your offensive line, some of the other players have a chance to perform. The addition of Joe helped a guy like (running back) Jamal Lewis, our quarterbacks, (wide receiver) Braylon Edwards, (tight end) Kellen Winslow."

Suddenly, it's the grunts in the trenches commanding huge contracts, such as Carolina's Travelle Wharton and Seattle's Sean Locklear, who get more than $6 million per year.

However, Dolphins vice president of football operations Bill Parcells has a long history of using his first-round picks on outstanding defensive players, particularly pass-rushing linebackers such as Lawrence Taylor, Carl Banks, Willie McGinest and Demarcus Ware.

In a copycat league, teams may begin stockpiling pass-rushing defensive ends in a 3-4 scheme after watching the way the Giants utilized an army of rushers to disrupt Tom Brady in their Super Bowl upset over the Patriots last February.

"As we saw in the Super Bowl and we see in virtually 80 percent of the games, it all comes down to that," Colts President Bill Polian said of coveting pass rushers. "You have to get a stop in the passing game in the last four minutes to win the game. So those people are really at a premium."

So Chris Long, the son of Hall of Famer defensive end Howie Long, might make the perfect successor to Taylor, who will be 34 after he's done hoofing on Dancing with the Stars. If the Dolphins pass on Chris Long, there are not many difference-makers among pass rushers other than Ohio State's Vernon Gholston and Florida's Derrick Harvey.

This draft is filled with potential impact left tackles, including Long, Ryan Clady, Jeff Otah, Gosder Cherilus, Sam Baker and Chris Williams. So the Dolphins could pass on Jake Long in the belief that coach Tony Sparano — a former offensive line coach — could mold one of the lower-profile tackles, as he did in Dallas with Flozell Adams and Andre Gurode.

"Those positions are basically joined by the hip," said Richmond Webb, the former Dolphins left tackle who kept quarterback Dan Marino relatively healthy and clean from 1990-99. "I believe that Jason Taylor can still put pressure on a quarterback for the next 3, 4 years, so I'd probably say offensive tackle. You have to protect that quarterback's blind side so he could get the deep ball off, but they can't go wrong either way."