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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Buckle up: Airfares taking off

By Dan Reed and Marilyn Adams
USA Today

Hawaii news photo - The Honolulu Advertiser

Delta Air Lines' merger with Northwest Airlines may cut costs in some areas, but fuel may not be one of them. United, JetBlue and AirTran yesterday all reported first-quarter losses — with fuel prices blamed.

Associated Press library photo

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Record oil prices that hit an all-time peak of $119.90 a barrel yesterday are pushing the nation's airlines into crisis mode.

From the biggest national network carriers to the smallest discounters, they're slamming already-slowed growth plans into reverse and talking loudly about raising fares — by a lot.

Delta CEO Richard Anderson told reporters at a Washington briefing yesterday that oil prices have gotten so high that every fare in the industry needs to go up 15 percent to 20 percent just for the carriers to stay even.

Senior executives at United, AirTran and JetBlue announced yesterday large first-quarter losses because of high oil prices. They said their airlines either will stop growing or, in United's case, speed the rate at which it is shrinking. All three warned that the cuts will go deeper if oil prices don't fall soon.

That trio joined American, Continental, Southwest and Delta, which already have announced plans to shrink or curtail their growth plans. Northwest has signaled that it, too, plans to cut capacity.

But in light of yesterday's record oil prices, investors weren't appeased. The AMEX Airline Index fell 12.35 percent, and all but two carriers, JetBlue and Southwest, saw their shares lose more than 10 percent of their value. United's and AirTran's shares were hit especially hard, falling almost 37 percent and 21 percent, respectively.

Details about the planned capacity cuts were sparse. But most endangered are leisure-oriented routes and secondary business travel routes such as JetBlue's flights between New York and Tucson, Ariz. The discount carrier said it is suspending service on that route because there are not enough travelers willing to pay high enough fares to make it profitable.

"Every aircraft has to earn its way in our network," said CEO Dave Barger, signaling a major shift in its previous willingness to let secondary business routes develop in time into moneymakers.

United announced the most sweeping cuts yesterday. By the fall, the nation's No. 2 carrier will have 9 percent less domestic capacity flying than it did in the fourth quarter of 2007. United also will eliminate 1,100 jobs.

United CFO Jake Brace told reporters and analysts yesterday that the current fuel price environment turns normally gut-wrenching questions about reducing service, fleet and staff into "very straightforward decisions." United now plans to park at least 30 of its least-fuel-efficient planes this year.

AirTran is making the most dramatic shift in its approach to capacity growth. In the first quarter, its capacity was up 10.8 percent over the first quarter of 2007. But in the last quarter of this year, and in all of 2009, its year-over-year growth rate will fall to zero, down from a previous plan to grow by 10 percent.

CEO Bob Fornaro said that with sustained oil prices well above $100 a barrel, AirTran could begin shrinking capacity in the fourth quarter and in 2009.

Fornaro said carriers will "change the revenue environment. We'll push up our average fares, and redundant capacity will leave."

But "just raising prices without reducing capacity is not going to raise the revenue," he said. "To support the price increases, capacity has to drop."

Fornaro also predicted that most other carriers will take more aggressive steps to curtail capacity and raise fares by midsummer.

UAL, United's parent, lost $537 million, or $4.45 a share in the first quarter, more than triple its $152 million loss a year ago. Its quarterly fuel bill rose $534 million.

AirTran's loss totaled $34.8 million, or 38 cents a share, versus a $2.2 million profit, or 2 cents a share, in the first quarter of 2007.

JetBlue lost less than analysts had expected: $8 million, or 4 cents a share, versus a loss of $22 million, or 12 cents a share, in the same period last year.