honoluluadvertiser.com

Sponsored by:

Comment, blog & share photos

Log in | Become a member
The Honolulu Advertiser
Updated at 1:27 a.m., Friday, August 1, 2008

Despite blockbuster trades, Red Sox still will play Cubs in World Series

By Tim Kawakami
San Jose Mercury News

More power (literally) to the Los Angeles Dodgers for renting Manny Ramirez and to the Chicago White Sox for agreeing to a Ken Griffey Jr., time-share at yesterday's trade deadline.

Hey! Big news! When a combined 1,118 career home runs go crisscrossing across state and league lines in a single afternoon ... well, that has to shake up the pennant races, right?

But ... not really.

It seems odd to say, but by realistic calculations, neither future Hall of Famer will make much of a difference as an addition to their new teams or as a void their old teams cannot fill.

In fact, these two loudspeaker trades only strengthened my belief that the Boston Red Sox, despite dealing Ramirez, and the Chicago Cubs, despite the crushing weight of fate, will meet in the World Series this October.

That is pending cataclysm and another brush with Bartman, of course.

Boston, which has outscored its opponents by 82 runs so far this season, adroitly replaced Ramirez with former Pirates secret Jason Bay, who isn't quite on that level as a hitter but does actually run out double-play grounders.

The Cubs, meanwhile, have outscored opponents by a majors-leading 130 runs — Boston is No. 2 — and did their dealing a few weeks ago, appropriating Rich Harden at the start of Billy Beane's latest bake sale.

By the way, last season's best NL run-differential team: Pennant-winning Colorado at plus-102. The best AL run-differential team in 2008: World Series-winning Boston, at plus-210. It doesn't always work that way, but it's a great analytical short-cut.

The Red Sox and Cubs. Yes, let that one sink in. Those two will play for the title, despite the latest cluster of trades, including Ivan Rodriguez to the Yankees and Mark Teixeira to the Angels.

The Red Sox, because, even if Curt Schilling doesn't make it back, Boston has more good players than anybody, from David Ortiz to Josh Beckett to Jon Lester to Jonathan Papelbon to Jacoby Ellsbury to J.D. Drew to Kevin Youkilis and now to Bay.

And the Cubs, because I think Lou Piniella will get the bullpen straightened out; the lineup with Derrek Lee, Alfonso Soriano, Kosuke Fukodome has been devastating and a rotation leading off with Carlos Zambrano and Harden can be diabolical.

Now let's go through a quickee eliminating process:

—I'm eliminating the White Sox, despite adding Griffey, because Griffey is barely above average at 38 and basically duplicates their other problematic hitters — Paul Konerko (a disastrous hitting season so far), Jim Thome and Nick Swisher.

And really, their main problem is not fixable by Griffey. It's the defense. Chicago has given up a majors-worst 54 unearned runs. In contrast, the Cubs and Angels have both only given up 29 unearned runs this season.

—I'm eliminating the Yankees, despite adding Pudge and their recent hot streak, because I just don't trust that the creaky I-Rod, Andy Pettitte, Johnny Damon and Jason Giambi can hold it together without breaking down. (Jorge Posada and Hideki Matsui: Already broken.)

—I'm eliminating Minnesota, despite the Twins' traditional scrappiness, because they're baseball's 16th-ranked team in both earned-run average and OPS (on-base plus slugging averages). That's total mediocrity.

—I'm eliminating Tampa Bay, despite the Rays' lead over Boston and the Yankees in the AL East, because it's just not time for them yet.

—I'm eliminating the Angels, despite the best record in baseball and the addition of Teixeira, because I think closer Francisco Rodriguez's arm is going to blow off on his way to the single-season saves record; also, because they've already all but clinched the AL West — too much time for them to get flat.

—In the NL, which is far weaker, I'm eliminating Philadelphia, Florida and St. Louis because those teams could see their starting rotations reduced to rubble in August and September.

—I'm eliminating Milwaukee, Arizona and the Dodgers, despite their potential for strong late-season pitching, because Milwaukee can't field, Arizona can't hit and an antsy Manny only exacerbates the Dodgers' chemistry problems.

—I'm eliminating the Mets because any team that folded like they did last September ought not to be part of this discussion.

Oh yes, I've eliminated the A's because they eliminated themselves over the last few weeks and because they have the second-lowest OPS in baseball. There's only one weaker-hitting team than the A's-that'd be Washington, which doesn't really count as a major-league team.

And I eliminated the Giants ... about two years ago.