Internal polls commissioned by the campaigns of Mayor Mufi Hannemann and City Council member Ann H. Kobayashi paint drastically different pictures of where the mayoral election stands less than 30 days before the primary election.

First, a poll of registered voters who participated in the past two primary elections commissioned by Kobayashi shows that Hannemann holds a 6 percentage-point lead over her.

The poll, conducted by Pacific Research and Planning Associates Inc. and paid for by the Kobayashi campaign, shows if the election were held today, Hannemann would capture 40.5 percent of the vote, Kobayashi 34.3 percent and University of Hawai'i engineer Panos D. Prevedouros 3 percent.

Slightly more than 20 percent of respondents were undecided.

The poll surveyed 400 registered voters who voted in the 2004 primary and the 2006 primary elections. The poll was conducted Aug. 16-21 and asked voters whom they would vote for if the election were held today if the choices were Hannemann, Kobayashi or Prevedouros.

The margin of error in that poll was 4.5 percent.

But according to the Hannemann campaign, a poll of 400 registered voters conducted during the past week showed the incumbent mayor would have a 35 percentage-point lead over his next-closest competitor. The margin of error was 5 percent.

The Hannemann campaign poll asked registered voters whom they would vote for if the election were held today: Hannemann, Kobayashi or Prevedouros.

The poll also included a question asking registered voters about whether or not they approved of the way Hannemann is running the city, and 80 percent of respondents said they do.

Neal Milner, a political scientist at the University of Hawai'i-Manoa, said that how a poll defines "likely voters" is critical to assessing the validity of the responses.

He said Hawai'i is not a place in which a lot of public polls are commissioned and released for consumption by likely voters and that a recent poll commissioned by The Honolulu Advertiser suggests that Hannemann is the stronger candidate.

"You always start with more skepticism towards a poll that is sponsored by a candidate," Milner said. "It (Kobayashi's poll) does seem closer than a lot of people think. I don't know, it would be surprising if in fact that were the case. There is not enough of a baseline and the fact that the candidates are releasing the polls makes you want to know more."

Eighty percent of those interviewed in a Hawai'i Poll approve of the job Hannemann is doing running the city. The poll, conducted by Ward Research Inc. for The Honolulu Advertiser and KGMB9, surveyed 510 O'ahu residents by phone from July 12-17. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.

All three major candidates for Honolulu mayor will participate in a candidate forum Thursday at the Filipino Community Center in Waipahu.

Hannemann, Kobayashi and Prevedouros are scheduled to attend. It is believed to be the first such gathering featuring all three candidates this election season.

The forum starts at 12:30 p.m.

Kobayashi's campaign seized on the results of its poll as evidence she could unseat Hannemann despite her late entry into the race.

City Council member Donovan M. Dela Cruz, Kobayashi's campaign chairman, said the Hannemann numbers appear dubious and, if true, do not justify Hannemann's spending on advertising.

"He continues to spend a tremendous amount of money and increasing his buys when that poll doesn't justify the spending," Dela Cruz said. "There wouldn't be a need to hang on to (U.S. Sen. Barack) Obama's coattails if those numbers were true."

A recent Hannemann ad shows a clip of Obama's Aug. 8 public rally in Ke'ehi Lagoon Beach Park in which the Democratic presidential nominee said Hannemann is "one of the best mayors in the country who has just made Honolulu even better."

Dela Cruz said the Kobayashi campaign won't take any voter for granted and will continue to work hard to get her message out.

"This (our poll) indicates the race is much closer than people think and that grassroots campaigning can combat the powers of incumbency and big-budget media campaigns," Dela Cruz said. "The voters truly want an option outside of the status quo and many want change they can believe in."

Dean Okimoto, co-chair of Hannemann's re-election campaign, said he trusts the results of the Hawai'i Poll.

"While I respect the pollsters, the fact that the Kobayashi campaign commissioned the poll raises questions about the validity of the numbers," Okimoto said. "You have two totally diverse results, that's why you go to to the polls to vote."