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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Tuesday, December 2, 2008

Oahu home sales dive, but prices stable

By Andrew Gomes
Advertiser Staff Writer

O'ahu home sales — especially condo sales — skidded in November but prices remained stable.

The number of single-family homes and condominiums sold last month was the lowest for any November since 1997, according to the Honolulu Board of Realtors.

Condo sales plummeted 47 percent to 201 from 379 a year earlier. Single-family home sales were down 30.6 percent.

Yet the median sale price was down only 2.5 percent for single-family homes, and was virtually unchanged for condos.

"Our prices are still holding in a pretty flat pattern," said Harvey Shapiro, research economist for the Realtors association. "I think it's just the short supply of housing available given our population."

Single-family homes sold last month for a median $594,500. That was second lowest this year, after $590,000 in September.

Condos sold last month for a median $316,200. That also was second lowest this year, after $296,000 in September, but represented a 0.4 percent rise from $315,000 in November 2007.

The effects of the recent global financial crisis haven't been reflected fully in the latest housing market report because the report counts completed sales that typically would have been agreed upon between August and October, some observers said.

"Time will tell what the complete effects of the current economic conditions will be, but we're hopeful that the slowdown will be shallow and only of short-term duration here in the Islands," Dana Chandler, president of the Honolulu Board of Realtors, said in a statement.

Shapiro said the financial market turmoil has taken a toll mostly on the condo market, where more purchasers tend to be investors.

November's drop in condo sales was the largest since sales began declining three years ago. The next biggest drop in that time was 37 percent in September 2006. The biggest drop earlier this year was 35.1 percent in June.

Only 170 single-family homes sold last month, down from 245 a year earlier. The drop was fourth highest this year, where a 40.1 percent decline was tops.

MORE DAYS ON MARKET

The slowdown also was reflected in how long it took between the time homes were listed for sale and the time they sold.

The median number of days on the market was 68 for condos that sold last month, the longest period this year after 53 days in October. The low this year was 33 days in April. In November 2007, the figure was 42 days.

Single-family homes sold last month spent a median 57 days on the market. That compared with 52 days in October and a high this year of 61 days in January. In November 2007, the figure was 53 days.

Interestingly, the slowdown in sales didn't push inventory up, because fewer people listed their homes for sale last month.

There were 359 new single-family home listings in November, which was the lowest for any month since December 2007 and compared with 628 new listings in November 2005, which was near the market peak.

For condos, there were 524 new listings last month, which also was the lowest for any month since December 2007 and compared with 1,003 new listings in November 2005.

As a result, total inventory was 2,096 single-family homes, which was down from 2,107 in October and compares with 1,952 a year ago. Condo inventory totaled 2,655, which was down slightly from 2,663 in October and compares with 2,442 a year ago.

Shapiro said bad economic news is clearly prompting people to hold off listing their property for sale, which has helped keep supply from oversaturating the market and depressing prices.

"This lack of inventory buildup indicates a slowdown in our market rather than a collapse as some Mainland cities have, unfortunately, experienced," he said.

BRIGHT SIDE

Local economists have said that Hawai'i's real estate market has fared better than many Mainland states because developers constrained by limited land and challenging development regulations didn't wildly overbuild. Lenders also said borrowers generally were more conservative and didn't take out as many risky loans that on the Mainland have led to stunning rates of foreclosure that erode property values.

This year through November, O'ahu single-family home sales are down 24.8 percent and the median price is down 3.3 percent to $623,500 from the same period last year. In the condo market, sales are down 28.3 percent and the median price is unchanged at $325,000.

"I think in general, this trajectory of moderate price declines on O'ahu is consistent with what we have expected," said Byron Gangnes, a University of Hawai'i economics professor.

The University of Hawai'i Economic Research Organization in early September forecast a 3.6 percent decline this year in the median single-family home price, followed by declines of 5.2 percent next year and 2.6 percent in 2010.

"I think that still is a reasonable projection with possible more downside risk than we had in September because of the financial crisis and weakness in the global economy," Gangnes said.

The UHERO forecast for condos was for a 1 percent median price rise this year, followed by declines of 4.9 percent next year and 5.9 percent in 2010.

Reach Andrew Gomes at agomes@honoluluadvertiser.com.

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