Nolan returned as the 49ers coach next season. Am I completely, utterly shocked? No. Am I surprised to the point where my jaw is dropping almost as low as a 49ers quarterback's passer rating? Yes.

No coach in 49ers franchise history who spooled out three consecutive losing seasons has ever survived to coach a fourth season — until now. The word is, Nolan saved his job by owning up to his mistakes in a big way during marathon meetings Monday and Tuesday with owners John and Jed York at 49ers headquarters in Santa Clara.

Unlike many of my media colleagues, I continue to maintain the Yorks are not idiots. Their logic on this coaching decision is something that I do seriously question — but I understand it.

The Yorks took a detailed look around the league and probably even sent out some feelers to possible candidates. But the family determined that there was no sure-fire superstar replacement primed to fill Nolan's position if he were fired. Bill Cowher is the obvious name that keeps popping up, but the 49ers are convinced he is not interested in coaching anywhere again soon.

Other than Cowher, who is the automatic, no-brainer choice out there for an NFL coaching job? Jimmy Johnson and Mike Ditka are too deep into their television careers. Brian Billick went 5-11 with Baltimore last season, same as Nolan did with the 49ers. Dallas Cowboys offensive coordinator Jason Garrett is a current hot-buzz name, but he is seen by many around the league as a product of his team's talent. He would be a risk, as would any other NFL coordinator or assistant.

Once they understood that the potential hiring pool was so unspectacular, the Yorks were willing to give Nolan a chance to explain the free-fall 49ers splat of 2007. Smart guy, Nolan. He did not try to defend any of his decisions that turned out to be so wrong — beginning with the hiring of offensive coordinator Jim Hostler when the team was put in a pickle by Norv Turner's resignation last Feb. 20, late in the hurricane season of NFL coaching staff changes. Nolan promoted the inexperienced Hostler rather than find an established coordinator, setting in motion a sequence of events that led to the 49ers' offense ranking last in points and yards in 2007.

Nolan told the Yorks he took full responsibility for the Hostler move and its awful results — and said that if the move was what caused Nolan to be fired, so be it. His candor and non-defensiveness was appreciated. Nolan also admitted that quarterback Alex Smith's situation could have been handled much better. All parties agreed that Hostler would be replaced (although Detroit Lions coordinator Mike Martz is not a candidate in spite of recent reports).

There could be other offensive coaching changes, as well, when the new offensive coordinator is hired. The Yorks and Nolan also agreed there would be open competition for the starting quarterback job next season between Smith, Shaun Hill and perhaps another experienced free agent.

All of this meshed with feedback that the Yorks received from inside the locker room, where sentiment was that Hostler had set the offense in reverse and set up an uncomfortable dynamic between the defensive and offensive units. There is also the feeling that many of the unforeseen or tragic moments that twisted this season sideways — the damage to Smith's shoulder, the death of Nolan's father, the need to start a fourth-string quarterback because of injuries — could not possibly be repeated.

The major new development, of course, is that Nolan will be forced to relinquish his de facto general manager duties and become just the coach. The personnel side of things will be handled by Scot McCloughan, the man Nolan tapped three years ago to be the team's player personnel director. Now, instead of McCloughan reporting to Nolan, the flow chart will go in reverse. Instead of making suggestions or recommendations, McCloughan will make final decisions. He is clearly capable and intelligent enough to do so — but it's going to be an adjustment.

There's no guarantee it won't work, though. In 1999 when Mike Holmgren was hired to coach the Seattle Seahawks, he was also given the general manager's title and power — until it was taken away from a few years later by owner Paul Allen. Soon after, with Holmgren concentrating solely on coaching, the Seahawks reached the Super Bowl.

The difference, of course, is that Holmgren had already won an NFL championship as coach in Green Bay, so his credentials in that regard were well established. Nolan, as a head coach, has won 16 games in three seasons.

Other structural changes in the 49ers front office are possible, mostly to be decided by McCloughan. We're supposed to find out most of this stuff at a press conference today. My prediction is that Nolan will be smiling widely. It's something I never expected to see back in early December when I predicted that Nolan had less than a 20 percent chance of returning as coach.

Tuesday, that 20 percent somehow turned into 100 percent. But rather than seeing Nolan's smile today, I'm interested in what he says. Maybe he can do the same convincing job on us that he did on the Yorks over the last couple of days.