It's a new year, a new election cycle, and, of course, all eyes for the moment are on the campaign for president.

Within a day or so, we'll know the results of the Iowa caucuses and who has the pole position in the race for the White House.

In reality, it should be absurd to make any prediction about the final shape of the presidential contest on this. But that won't stop folks from trying.

Hawai'i voters who are members of political parties have weeks before they can make their choices. By then, the races may be largely settled. But the fervent hope of local partisans is that Hawai'i's choice might even have a small impact on the outcome.

The Republicans hold a series of district caucuses beginning Jan. 25.

Those will largely dictate the makeup of the state convention May 16-18, at which point delegates to the national GOP convention will be chosen. Traditionally, local Republicans like to send an uncommitted delegation.

Democrats, meanwhile, moved their caucuses — during which the makeup of much of the voting delegation to the national convention will be decided — to Feb. 19. This is relatively early in the presidential nominating calendar, but still late enough so that a nominee or at least a clear front-runner may have been identified.

So, why bother?

For some, it is the love of the game. For others, it is an abiding ideological association with a particular candidate.

And then there are those who see it as a strategic game in which the calculus of the nominating process is played in subtle ways. Even if a candidate has the nomination sewn up, there is still room for horse-trading on issues, time in the convention limelight and platform stands. That requires loyal delegates.

One issue where this plays in a big way is the Hawaiian recognition, or Akaka, bill.

While supporters make brave noises about bringing Akaka back to the floor of Congress this coming session, privately they will acknowledge there's little hope of complete success until after the election, and then, only if a Democrat is elected.

So for Akaka bill fans, 2009 is the real target date. Before that, it's vital to nominate a supportive Democrat and develop the clout needed to put the bill on the agenda at the nominating convention.

Opponents of the bill won't find much fertile ground in the Democratic caucuses. But they might want to push on the Republican side for a nominee and a convention that holds to President Bush's opposition to the bill.

Point is, one does not have to look far to find a real reason to care about the presidential nominating process, even way out here.

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