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Posted at 10:36 a.m., Wednesday, January 9, 2008

UPS head said recession risk has increased

By HARRY R. WEBER
AP Business Writer

ATLANTA (AP) — The chief executive of UPS Inc. said Wednesday that the country is at increased risk of falling into a recession and it's not clear when the economy will rebound.

CEO Scott Davis, who took the helm at the world's largest shipping carrier earlier this month, told a Metro Atlanta Chamber of Commerce gathering that overall economic growth is lethargic.

"Hopefully, we'll work our way through it," Davis said.

He said he could not say for sure if the U.S. will fall into a recession, but he added, "There's more risk than there was before."

Davis did not offer any new guidance on earnings and revenue projections for Atlanta-based UPS, which moves roughly 7 percent of the country's gross domestic product each day.

UPS previously said that its growth in the fourth quarter, which included the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays, would be its slowest in four years, due mostly to weak U.S. retail sales. UPS, also known as United Parcel Service, releases fourth-quarter and year-end results on Jan. 30.

A slowdown in the U.S. housing market and a credit crunch facing major financial institutions have caused economic observers in recent months to grow more concerned about the possibility of a recession.

Davis said that UPS' strategy of long-term growth, particularly on the international side, will not change under his leadership.

Increasing competition for delivery of goods has meant the company has had to broaden its global reach and expand its business beyond small package delivery, to shipping heavy freight and providing logistics services for companies.

"We are a patient company — always looking 10, 20, 30 years down the road," Davis said.

UPS announced in October that Mike Eskew would retire at the end of 2007 after six years as CEO and more than three decades with the company. Davis was the company's chief financial officer before taking the top post.

UPS shares fell 22 cents and hit a 52-week low of $66.45 in midday trading Wednesday, 15 percent off trading highs of $78.99 during the same period.