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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Saturday, January 19, 2008

If you got $800 to rescue the economy, would you?

By Ellen Simon
Associated Press Business Writer

Hawaii news photo - The Honolulu Advertiser

Mark Gessler, 44, was out buying yesterday at a shopping center in Madison, Wis. But the federal worker said he'd put any tax rebate into a college fund for his children, not splurge it to stave off a recession.

RYAN FOLEY | Associated Press

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NEW YORK — Is an extra $800 in your pocket enough to change the course of the ailing economy?

President Bush, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and members of Congress seem to think so. Washington is talking about issuing tax rebate checks in hopes of staving off a recession.

And people around the country, many of them struggling to pay bills, staggering under credit card debt or worried about their financial futures, aren't about to turn them down.

"I would probably take that money and breathe a sigh of relief for one month," said Jennifer Simon, who works at a small communications firm in Long Valley, N.J., and spends $1,500 a month on child care.

"It's not a permanent fix," she said, "but I wouldn't send it back."

Taxpayers got smaller rebates, $300 per person, under a similar plan in 2001. There is debate in economic circles — as usual — about whether those checks warded off recession or went straight into savings accounts.

This time around, while some people may put the rebate toward a big-ticket item like a flat-screen TV, many echo Ginger Scott, a physical therapy worker in Kansas City, Mo. She says she wouldn't buy anything exciting.

"I think I had too much exciting previously," said Scott, 52. "Exciting will kill your budget." She said she'd pay off a credit card bill and save what's left over.

President Bush yesterday embraced as much as $150 billion in tax relief, most of it for individuals, to jump-start the economy. He said the country would be "just fine" if Congress passes the stimulus.

While the administration is avoiding specifics, congressional aides said the White House is considering rebates of up to $800 for individuals and $1,600 for married couples. The checks could arrive by late spring.

In interviews, Americans reflected on how they'd spend the money, considering a difficult economy in which the costs of food and gas are rising and jobs are harder to come by.

Mark Gessler, 44, a U.S. Department of Transportation employee in Madison, Wis., said he would put the rebate into a college savings fund for his two young children.

DaMel Nixon, 33, a mailhouse quality control supervisor in Lansing, Mich., is an avid buyer of music but said he is unlikely to use his $800 to splurge on CDs because he needs money for gas.

"I'm going to need that $20 to put in the tank," he said.

In Fargo, N.D., Doug Benson said he would spend half of the $800 on bills and half on new beds for his children. In New York City, Landy Ung said she would use the money as incentives for the salespeople in her startup Internet business.

At a mall in Madison, Wis., Antonia Rivera said she would love a new pair of snow boots, but would save the cash instead. She hopes to retire from her job as a hospital supply clerk next year but may not have enough money.

So Rivera, 68, is cutting back on all her purchases.

And in Kansas City, Jenise Lemmones said she'd let her 8-year-old granddaughter, who lives with her, call the shots: "She just likes to go to McDonald's and the movies."

Two-thirds of 2001's rebate cash was spent within six months, according to one paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, a private research group.

Fans of the rebate say that spending was enough to keep the country out of a longer, more painful recession.

"The recession officially ended the month after the stimulus package checks were sent out," said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's.

But a conflicting report, also published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, found that what bump in spending there was went almost entirely to the auto sector, which was then offering zero-percent financing.

"The majority of consumers saved or paid off a debt rather than spending it," said Matthew Shapiro, a University of Michigan economist who co-wrote the second report.

Economists do agree on this much: A stimulus like this is a one-shot deal.

"Once people have spent it, they may ask, 'Who's going to cover next month's expenses?' " said economist Edward Yardeni, who runs his own research firm.

Still, if a stimulus package passes and it works, the government would save a fortune in the long run, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's www.Economy.com.

A deep recession would mean lower tax receipts and increased spending on unemployment insurance payouts, welfare and food stamps.

He noted that "$150 billion could, in the end, save us $500 billion if it saves us from a long, lengthy, severe recession."

That's not enough for Scott, the Kansas City home-health worker. She wants a long-term fix, including tax breaks.

She is suspicious of the tax rebate stimulus because "we like to gratify ourselves quickly in this country. We buy things we can't afford."