With the majority of the NBA's teams either closing in or — or having already passed — the 40-game mark, it is time to start the process of separating fact from fiction, the teams truly deserving of the hype from those that are here-for-now, the lucky from the legit.

You get the point. The official break in the season doesn't come until the All-Star Game next month. But by then, the back-stretch dash to the playoffs already would have started.

Barring catastrophic injuries — or historic collapses — Boston, Detroit, Phoenix, Dallas and San Antonio are essentially postseason locks.

And unless Kevin Garnett gets traded to his former team, Shaquille O'Neal channels his former self, Michael Jordan dons his former uniform or Elvis drops another album, Minnesota, Miami, Chicago, Memphis and Seattle can get a jump on reservations for the draft lottery.

That basically leaves 20 teams in the mix for 11 playoff spots, with three months left to fight for position in a race where not much separates the hoaxes from the serious hopefuls.

We take a look at eight playoff-caliber teams — four from each conference — that have had surprisingly good or stunningly disappointing starts, and determine if they are pretenders or contenders.

Atlanta: The Hawks entered the New Year with their first winning record in a decade. That offered hope that a promising young roster finally would deliver the breakthrough needed to save coach Mike Woodson's job and restore respect to a franchise that hasn't had much since since we will get back to you.

Seven of their first 18 losses were by six or fewer points, meaning they have closing issues. They will get just close enough to the postseason to just miss it.

—Status: Pretender.

Cleveland: The Cavs entered the weekend having won eight of 10 to overcome a rocky start marred by holdouts, injuries and an inactive offseason.

LeBron James has yet to get the roster help he needs, but he has responded by doing even more to prove last year's run to the Finals was no fluke. No one else on the team scares you, but they do just enough to stay in games and give James a chance to deliver the knockout blow.

—Status: Contender.

Denver: Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony get much — if not all — of the shot attempts, and credit. But no player on the roster impacts the team's playoff chances more than Marcus Camby, whose defensive dominance has kept the Nuggets on course.

If Camby — who has had 20 or more rebounds in eight games — stays healthy and Kenyon Martin ever gets healthy, there might not be a bigger headache to face down the stretch.

—Status: Contender.

Houston: Yao Ming's steady play is the only thing keeping the Rockets from dropping off to Heat- or Bulls-like proportions, considering the expectations. Tracy McGrady is dealing with injuries and trade rumors yet again, and this team has lost its defensive swagger.

You know it is not going well when Bonzi Wells is being counted on. Barring a trade, it will get worse before it gets better.

—Status: Pretender.

New Jersey: A team with three of the league's most productive players at their respective positions shouldn't be this sporadic. But mediocre would be a compliment for Jason Kidd, Vince Carter, Richard Jefferson and the Nets, who entered the weekend as the only team with a losing record at home and a winning road record.

For three seasons, the Nets have been a team that seems to lack an identity and direction despite Kidd's play.

—Status: Pretender.

New Orleans: Chris Paul is an All-Star — or better be one — and Tyson Chandler is a younger, more explosive version of Camby on the defensive end.

There is no doubt this would be a top-three team in the East, where geography dictates the Hornets should be playing. Instead, they are in the much-deeper West, where they will be fighting for home-court advantage, if not for their playoff lives, down the stretch.

—Status: Contender.

Portland: The Blazers are the second-biggest turnaround team behind the Celtics. But Portland didn't have to bring in a big-time player. Instead, the Blazers got rid of a big-time headache in Zach Randolph, sped up its playing style and turned the team over to guard Brandon Roy. If the Blazers can improve their team rebounding and avoid stretches when they rely too heavily on jumpers, the underdogs will have postseason bite.

—Status: Contender.

Toronto: The Raptors appear to be over the chemistry problems that led to a slow start to the season, although things still seem to be unsettled at small forward. Jose Calderon has filled in nicely at point guard while T.J. Ford has been out because of a severe spinal injury. But Toronto has yet to really make a sustained run and is just 2-10 against conference contenders Boston, Orlando, Detroit, Cleveland and Washington.