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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Saturday, July 5, 2008

G-8 summit finds itself with big problems on its agenda

By Malcolm Foster
Associated Press

Hawaii news photo - The Honolulu Advertiser

In Tokyo, gasoline was 190 yen per liter ($6.88 a gallon) Thursday for regular. But analysts don't expect world leaders to agree on any coordinated solution when they meet in Japan next week.

SHUJI KAJIYAMA | Associated Press

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SAPPORO, Japan — Amid surging oil prices, food price inflation and a credit crunch that's depressed global growth, leaders of the Group of Eight economic powers who will gather next week face the gravest combination of economic woes in at least a decade.

The outlook has darkened dramatically since last year's summit in Germany, when the G-8 heads of state declared the global economy in "good condition" and oil cost $70 a barrel — which seemed high at the time.

Since then, the U.S. subprime mortgage problems have erupted, roiling markets and battering major financial firms. Oil has doubled to above $140 and food prices have jumped, hurting the poor in particular and raising the risk of political instability.

"Things have changed for the worse across the board," said Robert Hormats, vice chairman of Goldman Sachs (International) Corp. in New York.

Hormats argues that the economic problems now are more serious and widespread than during the Asian financial woes of 1997-98, when the pain was largely limited to emerging markets.

"Now you have a financial disorder where the epicenter is the U.S.," he said. And fuel and food inflation "are serious matters that affect large numbers of people."

Host Japan had put global warming at the top of the upcoming G-8 summit's agenda, but the dilemma of how to respond to accelerating inflation and slowing global economic growth could grab the spotlight.

Japan's Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda has said he hopes the three-day meeting, which opens Monday at a hot-springs resort on Hokkaido, Japan's northern island, will "show some direction" in tackling oil and food prices but stressed it is only "one step" in a longer process.

On oil, analysts are skeptical that the G-8 leaders — representing the U.S., Japan, Britain, France, Germany, Russia, Italy and Canada — will come up with much beyond urging major petroleum producers to boost output, reiterating the message of their finance ministers, who met last month in Osaka.

Soaring crude prices have already prompted India, Malaysia, and Indonesia to cut subsidies and raise state-set prices on gasoline. Last month, China hiked fuel prices by up to 18 percent.

At the same time, prices of corn, wheat, rice, soybeans and other farm goods have surged because of changing diets, urbanization, expanding populations, extreme weather, biofuel production and speculation.

Spiraling fuel and food costs could drive millions into poverty, the Asian Development Bank has warned. In India, inflation has jumped to a 13-year high of 11.4 percent.

The G-8 leaders may announce a food aid package or pledge agricultural investment in poorer countries, experts say.

The credit crunch and global market turmoil are sure to be discussed, but with central bankers absent the leaders will most likely avoid making any specific statements about interest rates or currencies.

Overall, the summit's main goal will be to demonstrate confidence that the eight nations can "work through the oil crisis without causing the global economy to melt down," said Tom Cooley, dean of New York University's Stern School of Business.

Given the meeting's planned emphasis on climate change, the leaders could stress the importance of energy efficiency and alternative forms of energy, said Goldman's Hormats.

"The key thing is not what they do at these meetings but what they do at home," he said.

Oil and energy have remained recurring themes at the annual summits, said Hormats, who participated in several of the first meetings, which started in 1975. That gathering came after the 1973-74 oil embargo, when fuel prices surged after Mideast oil producers cut off the U.S. and other countries supporting Israel.

"We now have another oil crisis," Hormats said.

The summits were originally meant to focus on economic issues, but have expanded to include terrorism, Africa's development and the environment.

The group's membership also has grown from six to eight, most recently adding Russia, in 1997.

But many argue it should be expanded to include China, the world's fourth-largest economy, and emerging powerhouses like India and Brazil — especially to tackle such global issues as energy and climate change.

Already, the G-8 has been reaching out. It plans meetings with African leaders on the summit's first day, and later with leaders from China, India, Mexico, Brazil and South Africa — countries that someday might be a part of a Group of 13.