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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Saturday, July 26, 2008

FINALLY GOOD NEWS
Economy posts good news, but experts remain cautious

By Martin Crutsinger
Associated Press

Hawaii news photo - The Honolulu Advertiser

Sales of new homes fell in June for the seventh time in the past eight months, but the decline was less than expected, raising hopes that the nation's severe housing recession could be coming to an end.

DAMIAN DOVARGANES | Associated Press

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WASHINGTON — After weeks of one negative report after another, the economy finally got some news yesterday that wasn't half bad.

Wall Street, which suffered a stomach-churning drop Thursday, managed a modest gain. Oil prices hit their lowest point since early June, and gas fell to a seven-week low. Military spending helped boost big-ticket factory orders in June, and new home sales fell less than expected.

Still, private economists cautioned that a few better-than-expected data releases did not mean the economy's problems had disappeared.

The Commerce Department reported that a second straight double-digit increase in orders for defense capital goods had pushed total orders for big-ticket manufactured products up by 0.8 percent in June, the strongest gain in four months and much better than the 0.4 percent decline that economists had been expecting.

In a second report, Commerce said that sales of new homes dropped by 0.6 percent in June, less than half the decline that had been expected. May sales were revised to show more strength than originally thought although they were still down. New home sales have fallen in seven of the past eight months as the nation endures the steepest slump in housing in a generation.

But economists were encouraged that the pace of the decline has slowed significantly and two regions of the country — the Northeast and the Midwest — actually posted sales gains in June. Sales fell in the South and West. The inventory of unsold new homes also fell to a 10 month supply at the June sales pace, still high, but down from the peak of 11.2 months in March.

On the energy front, oil prices declined $2.23 settling at $123.26 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange yesterday as gas prices dipped to $4.006 per gallon, the first time pump prices have been that low in nearly seven weeks, according to a survey by AAA, the Oil Price Information Service and Wright Express.

At the same time, investors were encouraged by some slightly better news about consumers. The Reuters/University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment for July came in at 61.2, beating expectations and slightly better than the 28-year low of 56.4 hit in June.

Still, private economists cautioned that a reading at 61.2 was still in recession territory and far below the level a year ago, when the confidence index was at 90.4.

They said the economy faces sizable headwinds from the prolonged housing slump, which has driven mortgage foreclosures higher and resulted in billions of dollars of losses for financial companies. On top of that, the economy has shed nearly a half-million jobs since January as economic growth has stalled because of the troubles in housing, the credit crunch and soaring energy prices.