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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Wednesday, June 4, 2008

ECONOMY
Bernanke speech indicates that interest rates are stable

By Sue Kirchhoff
USA Today

Hawaii news photo - The Honolulu Advertiser

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke expects U.S. growth to improve in the next six months, but still fears the housing market.

BLOOMBERG NEWS SERVICE FILE PHOTO | May 2008

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WASHINGTON — Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke yesterday suggested interest rate policy is on hold, said "relatively weak" U.S. growth may be better in the second half of the year and termed the central bank "attentive" to economic risks posed by the weak dollar.

In a wide-ranging speech delivered via satellite to an economics conference in Spain, Bernanke called current Fed interest rate policy "well positioned to promote moderate growth and price stability over time."

That language signals the central bank, increasingly worried about inflation, is done cutting rates for now. But Bernanke emphasized that the Fed will respond as needed if conditions change.

Bernanke noted that slower U.S. growth, and previous interest rate cuts, have reduced the value of the dollar against other currencies, increasing the potential for inflation. Commodities, including oil, are priced in dollars, so sellers demand more when the currency loses buying power. U.S. imports become pricier, as well.

"We are attentive to the implications of changes in the value of the dollar for inflation and inflation expectations, and will continue to formulate policy to guard against risks," he said.

The Fed generally defers to the Treasury Department for assessments of the dollar, so Bernanke's remarks suggest a high concern.

"The Fed clearly recognizes that loose monetary policy has been one of the factors hurting the dollar so his comments support the market view that it will take a lot to get the Fed to (cut rates) again," said Win Thin, strategist at Brown Bros. Harriman.

The Fed has cut its target for a key interest rate to 2 percent from 5.25 percent since September. It meets on rates June 24-25.

Recent economic indicators show growth slightly stronger than expected, though still weak.

Bernanke said the housing market remains a big threat. Another worry is that rising prices could lead the public to expect higher inflation rates.

That in turn can fuel a cycle where workers seek higher wages and businesses raise their prices.