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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Sunday, June 22, 2008

HOUSING BUBBLE
Anatomy of the housing market's rise and fall

By Alec Klein and Zachary A. Goldfarb
Washington Post

THREE-PART SERIES

Today: Wall Street's role in

fueling the housing bubble

Tomorrow: The evolution of the subprime lending market

Tuesday: Post-mortem in the wake of the bubble's collapse

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GLOSSARY

Subprime mortgage: A home loan made to someone with a poor or incomplete credit history. Borrowers pay a higher than usual interest rate because of a higher risk they might not make their payments.

Mortgage broker: A middleman who, for a fee, connects people looking to obtain a mortgage with a bank or financial institution willing to make a loan.

Mortgage lender: A bank or other financial institution that provides a loan to a borrower to cover the cost of buying a home. Sometimes the lender sells the loan to Wall Street, where it is packaged with many other loans to create a mortgage-backed security.

Mortgage-backed security: A bond that pays investors interest derived from the cash flow of a pool of hundreds or thousands of monthly mortgage payments. The securities, also known as collateralized mortgage obligations, often slice the pool into sections — called "tranches" — that each carry different maturity dates and interest rates and are sold separately to investors.

Foreclosure: A process by which a mortgage lender seizes ownership of a home, usually when the owner falls seriously behind on payments.

Credit rater: A company that Wall Street and investors rely upon to analyze bonds, mortgage-backed securities and other debt issued by companies, financial institutions and even governments. The raters — of which the Big Three are Standard & Poor's, Moody's and Fitch — usually give letter grades to indicate the likelihood the debtors will default.

Federal Reserve: The U.S. central bank, known as The Fed. Its control over a special interest rate for bank-to-bank lending influences the interest rates paid by consumers and businesses.

Washington Post

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WASHINGTON — The black-tie party at Washington's swank Mayflower Hotel seemed a fitting celebration of the biggest American housing boom since the 1950s: filet mignon and lobster, a champagne room and hundreds of mortgage brokers, real estate agents and their customers gyrating to a Latin band.

On that winter night in 2005, the company hosting the gala honored itself with an ice sculpture of its logo. Pinnacle Financial had grown from a single office to a national behemoth generating $6.5 billion in mortgages that year. The $100,000-plus party celebrated the booming division that made loans largely to Hispanic immigrants with little savings. The company even booked rooms for those who imbibed too much.

Kevin Connelly, a loan officer who attended the affair, now marvels at those gilded times.

"It was the peak. It was the embodiment of business success," Connelly said. "We underestimated the bubble, even though deep down, we knew it couldn't last forever."

Indeed, Pinnacle's party would soon end, along with the nation's housing euphoria. The company has all but disappeared, along with dozens of other mortgage firms, tens of thousands of jobs on Wall Street and the dreams of about 1 million proud new homeowners who lost their houses.

The aftershocks of the housing market's collapse still rumble through the economy, with unemployment rising, companies struggling to obtain financing and the stock market more than 10 percent below its peak last fall. The Federal Reserve has taken unprecedented action to stave off a recession, slashing interest rates and intervening to save a storied Wall Street investment bank. Congress and federal agencies have launched investigations into what happened: wrongdoing by mortgage brokers, lax lending standards by banks, failures by watchdogs.

Seen in the best possible light, the housing bubble that began inflating in the mid-1990s was "a great national experiment," as one prominent economist put it — a way to harness the inventiveness of the capitalist system to give low-income families, minorities and immigrants a chance to own their homes. But it also is a classic story of boom, excess and bust, of homeowners, speculators and Wall Street dealmakers happy to ride the wave of easy money even though many knew a crash was inevitable.

'A LOT OF POTENTIAL'

For David E. Zimmer, the story of the bubble began in 1986 in a high-rise office overlooking Lake Erie.

An aggressive, clean-cut 25-year-old, armed with an MBA from the University of Notre Dame, Zimmer spent his hours attached to a phone at his small desk at First Boston investment bank.

"There was a lot of education going on," Zimmer said. "I realized, as a lot of people did, this was a brand new segment of the market that had a lot of potential, but I had no idea how big this would get."

Zimmer joined the business as enormous changes were taking hold in the mortgage industry. Since World War II, community banks, also called thrifts or savings and loans, had profited by taking savings deposits, paying their customers interest and then lending the money at a slightly higher rate for 30 years to people who wanted to buy homes.

In 1970, when demand for mortgage money threatened to outstrip supply, the government hit on a new idea for getting more money to borrowers: Buy the 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages from the thrifts, guarantee them against defaults, and pool thousands of the mortgages to be sold as a bond to investors, who would get a stream of payments from the homeowners. In turn, the thrifts would get immediate cash to lend to more home buyers.

Wall Street, which would broker the deals and collect fees, saw the pools of mortgages as a new opportunity for profit. But the business did not get big until the 1980s. That was when the mortgage finance chief at the Salomon Brothers investment bank, Lewis Ranieri — a Brooklyn-born college dropout who started in the company's mailroom — and his competitor, Laurence Fink of First Boston, came up with a new idea: the collateralized mortgage obligation, or CMO. The CMO sliced a pool of mortgages into sections, called "tranches," that would be sold separately to investors. Each tranche paid a different interest rate and had a different maturity date.

Investors flocked to the new, more flexible products. By the time Zimmer joined First Boston, $126 billion in CMOs and other mortgage-backed securities were being sold annually. "Growth is really poised to take off," Zimmer thought.

'EXTRAORDINARY' BOOM

April 14, 2000. A rough day on Wall Street. The technology-laden Nasdaq stock index, which had more than doubled from January 1999 to March 2000, falls 356 points. Within a few days, it will have dropped by a third.

Although the business of structured finance grew in the 1990s, Internet companies drew the sexiest action on the Street. When that bubble popped, Americans who had invested in the high-flying stocks saw their savings evaporate. Consumer and business spending began to dry up.

Then came the 2001 terrorist attacks, which brought down the twin towers, shut down the stock market for four days and plunged the economy into recession.

The government's efforts to counter the pain of that bust soon pumped air into the next bubble: housing. The Bush administration pushed two big tax cuts, and the Federal Reserve, led by Alan Greenspan, slashed interest rates to spur lending and spending.

Low rates kicked the housing market into high gear. Construction of new homes jumped 8 percent in 2002, and prices climbed. By that November, Greenspan noted the trend, telling a private meeting of Fed officials that, "our extraordinary housing boom ... financed by very large increases in mortgage debt, cannot continue indefinitely into the future," according to a transcript.

The average rate on a 30-year-fixed mortgage fell to 5.8 percent in 2003, the lowest since at least the 1960s. Greenspan boasted to Congress that "the Federal Reserve's commitment to foster sustainable growth" was helping fuel the economy, and he noted that homeownership was growing.

There was something very new about this particular housing boom. Much of it was driven by loans made to a new category of borrowers — those with little savings, modest income or checkered credit histories. Such people did not qualify for the best interest rates; the riskiest of these borrowers were known as "subprime." With interest rates falling nationwide, most subprime loans gave borrowers a low "teaser" rate for the first two or three years, with the monthly payments ballooning after that.

Because subprime borrowers were assumed to be higher credit risks, lenders charged them higher interest rates. That meant that investors who bought securities based on pools of subprime mortgages would enjoy higher returns.

WARNING SIGN

Jan. 31, 2006. Greenspan, widely celebrated for steering the economy through multiple shocks for more than 18 years, steps down from his post as Fed chairman.

Greenspan puzzled over one piece of data a Fed employee showed him in his final weeks. A trade publication reported that subprime mortgages had ballooned to 20 percent of all loans, triple the level of a few years earlier.

"I looked at the numbers ... and said, 'Where did they get these numbers from?' " Greenspan recalled in a recent interview. He was skeptical that such loans had grown in a short period "to such gargantuan proportions."

Greenspan said he did not recall whether he mentioned the dramatic growth in subprime loans to his successor, Ben Bernanke.

Bernanke, a reserved Princeton University economist unaccustomed to the national spotlight, came in to the job wanting to reduce the role of the Fed chairman as an outsized personality the way Greenspan had been. Two weeks into the job, Bernanke testified before Congress that it was a "positive" that the nation's homeownership rate had reached nearly 70 percent, in part because of subprime loans.

"If the housing market does slow down," Bernanke said, "we'll want to see how strong the subprime mortgage market is and whether or not we'll see any problems in that market."

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