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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Saturday, November 1, 2008

October auto sales figure to be grim

By Dan Strumpf
Associated Press

NEW YORK — The auto industry is preparing to report yet another month of rapidly slowing sales — possibly the worst in decades — as the same toxic combination of the credit crunch and the careening economy continue to keep consumers away from dealerships.

"When your home prices are going down and your retirement savings are going down and the outlook for jobs ... is becoming more problematic, you're probably not in the mood to pull the trigger on a big ticket purchase, even if you can get credit," said George Pipas, Ford Motor Co.'s top sales analyst.

Automakers are scheduled to report October U.S. sales on Monday. The automotive Web site Edmunds.com is projecting new vehicle sales plunged 29 percent from a year ago, to 872,000. That would be the lowest figure since January 1992, Edmunds auto analyst Jessica Caldwell said.

Some analysts say it's possible Japan's Toyota Motor Corp. will surpass General Motors Corp. as the U.S. sales leader for the first time in history.

After reeling from a 32 percent drop in September sales, Toyota launched zero-percent financing on almost all of its models, and could post decent sales as a result. Meanwhile, General Motors Corp.'s financing arm, GMAC, said it was tightening its lending standards to require a credit score of at least 700, potentially shutting out some buyers.

Furthermore, many people took advantage of the Detroit automaker's employee pricing offer that recently ended. The deal was credited with buoying August and September's results but likely stole sales from October, said Tom Libby, senior director for industry analysis at J.D. Power and Associates' Power Information Network.

J.D. Power is predicting a seasonally adjusted annual sales rate in October of between 11 million and 11.5 million, down from 16.1 million a year ago. The figure indicates what sales would be if they remained at their current rate all year, with adjustments for seasonal fluctuations.