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The Honolulu Advertiser
Updated at 2:59 a.m., Monday, November 3, 2008

NFL: Raiders, fans anxiously waiting for Russell to blossom

By Paul Gutierrez
McClatchy Newspapers

Hawaii news photo - The Honolulu Advertiser

Oakland Raiders quarterback JaMarcus Russell (2) walks off the field Sunday after their NFL football game against the Atlanta Falcons in Oakland, Calif.

PAUL SAKUMA | Associated Press

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OAKLAND, Calif. — A growing uneasiness percolates in Raider Nation.

The "B'' Word Bust has yet to creep into the everyday vernacular of Silver and Blackdom when it comes to the play of purported franchise quarterback JaMarcus Russell. Nor should it.

But impatient, pacing observers are waiting for "The Chosen One," as Russell has tattooed on his left arm, to become the "Second Coming" and lead the Raiders to the Promised Land. Like yesterday. Even if the No. 1 overall pick from the 2007 draft is in his first full NFL season.

Consider: on Fox Sports Net's "Pro Football Preview," host Jay Glazer wondered if he was crazy to say Atlanta rookie quarterback Matt Ryan ends up with a better career than Russell. Then on Sunday, Ryan and the Falcons then went out and blanked Russell and the Raiders, 24-0.

"You're not crazy," said injured San Diego linebacker Shawne Merriman. "I think the talent and everything is there, but the team? I don't see it."

Former Tennessee running back Eddie George agreed.

"You're not crazy," George said. "Matt Ryan has better mechanics right now, a better situation. He has a better career already."

Is there any surprise then, that there is such feverish hand wringing? Really, though, it should subside. Especially if expectations are lowered to a reasonable level.

Sure, Russell was drafted out of LSU to elevate the Raiders from the doldrums and Oakland is just 2-7 in his nine starts, but when you compare him to a handful of other quarterbacks taken with the draft's first pick, you see Russell is not off track.

Since the draft began in 1936, 27 quarterbacks have been taken No. 1 overall and just three of them are in the Hall of Fame: Terry Bradshaw (1970), John Elway (1983) and Troy Aikman (1989). Russell, who has completed 53.5 percent of his 228 attempts for 1,482 yards with seven touchdowns and four interceptions in his first eight career starts, has better numbers than them through the same time frame. Bradshaw had a passer rating of 28.8 through his first eight starts while Elway's initial eight-start rating of 48.8 belied his future success and Aikman was winless in his first eight starts.

That holy trinity went on to win a combined nine Super Bowls.

Even Peyton Manning, who should be enshrined in Canton six years after he throws his final pass, threw 16 interceptions in his first eight starts, while losing seven times.

One thing all four have in common: they were their respective teams' starters from Week 1 and took their ensuing lumps while in relatively stable environments that nurtured their talents.

The Raiders? Not so much, with Russell playing for his third coach next season should interim coach Tom Cable, promoted with the Sept. 30 firing of Lane Kiffin, not be retained.

In such chaos reside such cautionary tales as Tim Couch, taken No. 1 overall by Cleveland in 1999; David Carr, selected first by expansion Houston in 2002; and, sadly for 49ers fans, 2005 top pick Alex Smith.

Other No. 1 picks such as Steve Bartkowski (1975), Vinny Testaverde (1987), Jeff George (1990), Drew Bledsoe (1993), Michael Vick (2001), Carson Palmer (2003) and Eli Manning (2004) have enjoyed modicums of success, with Manning joining older brother Peyton as a Super Bowl champion in February.

Jim Plunkett, Stanford's Heisman Trophy winner, resided in the Busts camp early in his career after New England took him with the top pick in 1971. Then he went all Lazarus and won two Super Bowls with the Raiders.

He told The Sacramento Bee last year that patience was key.

"It's difficult to perform," said Plunkett, who completed 43.9 percent of his 187 passes for 1,067 yards with nine touchdowns and seven interceptions in his first eight starts, "when you're on your back or running for your life."

Meaning a No. 1 overall pick goes to a horrendous team, barring a trade that sees a better squad moving up in the draft or acquiring that player's rights, as Denver did with the Colts to get Elway, or the New York Giants did to acquire Eli Manning from the Chargers.

Ryan, who has led the Falcons' renaissance in the post-Vick era, went third overall after Miami selected offensive tackle Jake Long and St. Louis took defensive end Chris Long.

There was no contract holdout, ala Russell last year, and after the Boston College product won the starting job in camp, Ryan entered Sunday's game wirth has a passer rating of 79.7, but carved up the Raiders defense. He threw for 220 yards raising his season total to 1,661 and passes for his eighth and ninth touchdowns of the season. He wasn't intercepted Sunday and has thrown just five this season. The Falcons are 5-3.

But could Ryan's success be directly tied to his being in camp from Day 1, as opposed to Russell not joining the Raiders last season until after their first regular-season game? "That has nothing to do with me," Russell said of Ryan's situation. "It really doesn't. I wish I could have (been in camp). That's over with. We're on to another start."

Cable, the Falcons' offensive line coach in 2006, sees a recipe for success in how Atlanta has handled its franchise signal caller.

"They really are controlling what he's doing," Cable said. "They're doing it right. They're giving it to him as he can handle it. ...

"The thing that's really helped him is the guys around him have really stepped up and made plays."

Which puts the onus on the Raiders' skill position players, what with Russell getting more comfortable on the field. Throws off his back foot and fear of taking a hit on a busted play are fast becoming the exception.

"He's there right now," receiver Javon Walker said of Russell. "This league is all about opportunity. When you get the opportunity to play this game like you know how to play it, the sky's the limit."

Sports is a cyclical beast, and it used to be a quarterback drafted No. 1 overall was that team's starter under center from Week 1. Then the trend moved to having him sit and learn at the knee of a veteran, like Palmer in Cincinnati.

Now, Raiders haters and fans alike share one thing in common: they want to know what they have in Russell, boom or bust. And they want to know sooner, rather than later.

"Physically, he's an intimidating-looking quarterback, great size, has the skill set to be an outstanding quarterback," said Atlanta rookie coach Mike Smith, who schemed against Russell last year as Jacksonville's defensive coordinator. "The improvement has been steadily up from what I've seen. ... He's going to be a great quarterback in this league."

Patience, anyone?

___

BRONZE BUST OR PLAIN OL' BUST?

HOW RUSSELL COMPARES

In 2007, the Raiders' JaMarcus Russell became the 27th quarterback chosen first overall in the draft. Of those 27, only three have Hall of Fame busts while three others could be labeled busts. With Russell having started eight games in his nascent career, a look at his stats through those eight starts as compared to the same numbers for those three Hall of Famers and those three busts, through their respective first eight starts:

JaMarcus Russell (2-6 record), 2007, '08 Raiders

Stats: 122 of 228 (53.5 percent), 1,482 yards, 7 TDs, 4 ints.

BRONZE BUSTS

Terry Bradshaw-x (3-5), 1970 Steelers

Stats: 65 of 158 (41.1 percent), 972 yards, 3 TDs, 15 ints.

John Elway-x (3-5), 1983 Broncos

Stats: 79 of 166 (47.6 percent), 1,041 yards, 3 TDs, 10 ints.

Troy Aikman-x (0-8), 1989 Cowboys

Stats: 109 of 213 (51.2 percent), 1,388 yards, 8 TDs, 13 ints.

PLAIN OL' BUSTS

Tim Couch (1-7), 1999 Browns

Stats: 112 of 213 (52.6 percent), 1,212 yards, 7 TDs, 5 ints.

David Carr-x (2-6), 2002 Texans

Stats: 107 of 207 (51.7 percent), 1,387 yards, 7 TDs, 8 ints.

Alex Smith (2-6) 2005-06 49ers

Stats: 101 of 194 (52.1 percent), 1,129 yards, 1 TD, 11 ints.

x-Started from opening game of rookie season