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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Wholesale prices drop record 2.8%

By MARTIN CRUTSINGER
Associated Press

WASHINGTON — Wholesale prices in October experienced the biggest one-month drop on records that go back more than 60 years, illustrating the impact falling energy prices and fears of a prolonged recession can have on inflation.

Wholesale prices dropped by a record 2.8 percent last month, the Labor Department reported yesterday, reflecting that energy prices decreased by the largest amount in 22 years. After spending most of the year worrying about surging costs for energy, food and other commodities, analysts found it remarkable that prices could reverse so quickly.

"Inflation is yesterday's problem," said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight. He called the change "a testament to how suddenly the global economy's expansion has turned into recession."

Economists said they did not believe the country would experience outright deflation, which the U.S. last faced in the 1930s when the nation suffered through the Great Depression and a long, debilitating bout of falling prices.

"I think deflation concerns will rise over the next three to six months while the economy is at its worst and businesses are scrambling to hold on to sales by cutting prices," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's www.Economy.com. "But I don't think we will get an actual period of deflation because the Federal Reserve will be working very hard to make sure that doesn't happen."

Many economists believe the economy has fallen into a recession that could be the worst downturn in more than two decades. But they believe that retreating inflation pressures will give the Fed the room to cut interest rates further to combat the economic weakness.

The Fed cut interest rates by a half-point in a coordinated move with other central banks on Oct. 8 and followed with another half-point reduction on Oct. 29.