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The Honolulu Advertiser
Updated at 4:41 a.m., Monday, October 20, 2008

Leading indicators rise in September

Associated Press

NEW YORK —The economy's health improved for the first time in five months in September as interest rate spreads, supplier deliveries and new orders strengthened, a private research group said today.

The New York-based Conference Board said its monthly forecast of future economic activity rose 0.3 percent, a better reading than the 0.2 percent drop expected by Wall Street economists surveyed by Thomson/IFR.

The index had fallen 0.9 percent in August and 0.7 percent in July.

"Data on hand reflect a contracting economy, but not one in free fall," said Ken Goldstein, a labor economist at the Conference Board. "More likely, what's going in the financial market is a stretching of the recovery process — which could take a full year to develop."

Six of the ten indicators that make up the leading index increased in September, including the money supply and the index of consumer expectations. The negative contributors were building permits, unemployment claims, stock prices and weekly manufacturing hours.