NEW YORK — Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc., the third-largest U.S. lodging company, said profit will fall in 2008 and 2009 as the global financial crisis erodes travel spending faster than it anticipated.

The forecasts show that the deterioration in leisure and business travel is accelerating as corporations and consumers contend with higher food prices, declining home values, job losses and scarce credit. Chief Executive Officer Frits van Paasschen, one year into the job, has responded by cutting employees, shutting sales centers and trimming expenses at Starwood's Sheraton and Westin hotels. Starwood operates about a dozen properties on four islands in Hawai'i.

The company says it expects operating income from its timeshare business will tumble as much as $115 million this year compared with 2007, as demand for units, including those in Hawai'i and Orlando, slows. In the third quarter alone timeshare sales fell 11 percent, Starwood said.

"Consumers are going to be cured of their 'affluenza' by cutting back on expensive high-end vacations and revert to 'staycations' and 'daycations'." Steven Kent, an analyst at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. wrote yesterday in a research report. He is reviewing his price target of $20 and recommends selling the shares.

Third-quarter net income dropped 12 percent, Starwood said yesterday. Adjusted full-year earnings in 2008 are projected to drop to $2.07 to $2.13 a share, less than the $2.17 to $2.32 a share Starwood forecast in July.

Profit in 2009 may fall to $1.55 a share, assuming global revenue per available room, a measure of rates and occupancy known as revpar, drops 5 percent and foreign exchange rates remain constant, the White Plains, New York-based company said.

Shares of Starwood, which also owns the W, St. Regis and Le Meridien hotel brands, climbed 49 cents to $19.69 yesterday in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The shares lost 67 percent in the past year, compared with a 56 percent decline by larger Marriott International Inc.

Starwood's Hawai'i properties include: