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The Honolulu Advertiser
Updated at 8:58 a.m., Sunday, October 26, 2008

Newspaper companies face pressure from all sides

Associated Press

NEW YORK— The holiday grinch is already on his way to newspaper companies, where advertising for the rest of 2008 may match or be worse than an already-disappointing September.

Although the four newspaper publishers that reported earnings last week all beat Wall Street estimates, the attention of executives and analysts centered on the sharper drops in advertising and expectations for continued softening during the normally lucrative holiday season.

"The fact that September numbers are showing an acceleration of declines does not bode well for the remainder of the year," said Mike Simonton, a media analyst with Fitch Ratings. "There's really no catalyst for the numbers to improve."

Two more newspaper companies report earnings this week, including A.H. Belo Corp., which on Friday announced a companywide wage freeze, suspension of dividend payments and a new loan agreement that comes with higher interest payments.

Regardless of how financially stable they were as the year began, all media companies now face greater external pressure from the weakening economy, testing their ability to survive unscathed.

The migration of readers to the Internet was one matter; the economy made things far worse for all news media companies as consumers and advertisers drastically reduce spending.

Although circulation numbers due Monday are expected to show slight declines in most cases, the new pressure papers now feel comes chiefly from the economy.

In a sign of hope, the Newspaper Association of America said usage of newspaper Web sites grew nearly 16 percent in the third quarter, compared with last year. Together, newspapers averaged more than 68 million monthly unique visitors during the June-September period, the industry group said, citing a custom analysis by Nielsen Online.

But even the New York Times Co., which has some of the strongest newspaper-owned sites, saw digital ad spending slowing and mentioned a dividend review that could lead to cuts.

Gannett saw overall online revenue grow 7 percent in the third quarter on an adjusted basis, but its local papers saw a 7 percent drop in online revenue, largely because of weakness in classified advertising.

Ken Doctor, an analyst with Outsell Inc., said the troubles newspapers had seen earlier this year with real-estate and help-wanted ads are spilling into other sectors, including local retail ads that are usually strong during the holidays.

"The near panic in the country about how much money they have in their retirement account, how much their house is worth, are they going to keep their job, all that combines into pressures for retail advertisers," Doctor said.

To save the holidays, newspaper companies are counting on advertisers simply placing their ads at the last minute, once they have a better handle on consumer confidence. After all, retailers have inventory to clear out, even if they must discount deeply — and promote those sales through ads.

The McClatchy Co., The New York Times Co., Journal Communications Inc. and Gannett Co. all reported third-quarter earnings last week that beat Wall Street estimates — in Gannett's case by a penny per share — after adjusting for severance costs and other one-time charges.

But in the third quarter, Gannett said advertising revenue for publishing, which includes newspaper Web sites, fell nearly 18 percent. The drop was about 16 percent at the Times, 19 percent at McClatchy and nearly 14 percent at Journal Communications.

Media General, which reported earnings a week earlier and runs newspaper Web sites through a separate division, saw print ad revenue fall more than 21 percent during the July-September quarter.

Belo and The Washington Post Co. issue their earnings on Friday. Other media companies reporting this week are Scripps Networks Interactive Inc. and CBS Corp.

Much of the good news reported so far is temporary. Media General and Gannett, which also own television stations, saw gains from this year's Olympics and political advertising.

In publishing, Media General, McClatchy and Journal Communications all saw sharper year-over-year drops in advertising revenue last month. Gannett, which said Friday it was suspending the monthly figures, issued third-quarter numbers that hinted at a worse September. The Times company bucked the trend with September's drop not as bad as August's.

But both McClatchy and the Times said the October declines in print ads were tracking closely to September, meaning the depressed ad market shows no signs of easing.

Citing the weak prospects for advertising revenues, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services cut the Times' corporate credit rating to junk bond status Thursday. The Times also said it will take an accounting charge, retroactive to the third quarter, estimated at $100 million to $150 million to reflect the declining value of its New England newspapers.

Gannett, the nation's largest publisher and one of the fiscally healthiest, said Friday it was exploring additional job cuts by year's end because of economic conditions. It already announced cuts of some 1,100 jobs across its newspapers this summer. Gannett also said it was near agreement on new debt terms with lenders.

Elsewhere, GateHouse Media Inc., one of the nation's largest publishers of community newspapers, got delisted from the New York Stock Exchange effective last week, while American Community Newspapers Inc. said it would voluntarily delist next month.

The Star-Ledger of Newark, N.J., said Friday it will reduce its newsroom staff by nearly half through voluntary buyouts as New Jersey's largest newspaper seeks to return to profitability.

The Audit Bureau of Circulations releases six-month figures for the print editions Monday morning. The Wall Street Journal already said that circulation was flat during the period. Others are expected to post small declines.