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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Friday, September 5, 2008

Back-to-school shoppers favor discount stores

By Tiffany Hsu
Los Angeles Times

Hawaii news photo - The Honolulu Advertiser

Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, yesterday said sales of groceries and back-to-school products helped its August same-store sales exceed expectations. Other retailers didn't fare as well.

PAUL SAKUMA | Associated Press

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Consumers pummeled by high gas and food prices flocked to the nation's discount stores for the back-to-school season, leaving department stores and other sectors struggling throughout August to catch up.

Demand for necessities helped stores such as retail giant Wal-Mart Stores Inc. exceed expectations, while discounts and promotions at several apparel and teen businesses coaxed some discretionary spending out of shoppers, the stores reported yesterday.

Still, analysts said consumers might continue to buckle down and save straight through winter, intensifying their bargain hunting during holiday and post-Christmas shopping.

"We're looking at a muted holiday season, where shoppers are procrastinating until things go on sale," said Betty Chen, an analyst with Wedbush Morgan Securities. "And with five fewer days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, it'll be critical for retailers to drive as much sales as possible before then."

Overall, same-store sales numbers for August showed that retailers saw sales swell 1.7 percent. But the average stalled at the August 2007 level when Wal-Mart's data is excluded, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers' tally of 36 stores.

Several chains, such as Hot Topic Inc., performed better than expected, but only because expectations were low to begin with, analysts said. J.C. Penney beat estimates by 1.4 percent, but still saw sales droop 4.9 percent. The 8 percent fall at Gap Inc. was slightly less steep than the forecasted 9.7 percent.

The rocky summer encouraged pessimism, several analysts said, with the unemployment rate at a 12-year high, July's inflation surging to a 17-year peak and the Federal Reserve painting a dour portrait of a "soft" and "subdued" economy in a report Wednesday.

Margaret Rodriguez, 65, a retired office manager from Alhambra, Calif., stopped by a Mervyns department store yesterday because she thought the store was having a buy-one, get-one-free sale.

Nowadays, she says, she only ventures into upscale retailer Nordstrom to look at merchandise, never to buy. She's downsized to discount chains, where she scours 80 percent-off racks for deals and pairs all her purchases with coupons.

"My shopping has diminished completely," she said. "There's too many essential things I need to get, but it kills me to even put $60 of gas in my small little car."

The forecast for September looks ominous, said Britt Beemer, chairman of consumer behavior firm America's Research Group.

Foot traffic was strong over the Labor Day holiday weekend, which often makes up 20 percent of September sales, he said. But other analysts suggested that with some classes starting later in the month, extended back-to-school sales could buffer revenue. The shopping centers council is predicting a 2 percent increase overall.

But even with a boost from the holiday weekend and a strong fourth week because of slipping gasoline prices, August numbers were still dismal, Beemer said.