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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Friday, September 19, 2008

Lower fuel prices helping airlines shore up their cash

By Harry R. Weber
Associated Press

Hawaii news photo - The Honolulu Advertiser

American Airlines officials said the recent decline in oil prices has helped the company, but that questions remain about the impact of future fuel prices and the direction of the economy.

ASSOCIATED PRESS FILE PHOTO | June 2008

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ATLANTA — Several major airlines said yesterday they are aggressively shoring up their cash positions amid their slow travel season. Falling oil prices will help in the long run, though bad fuel hedge bets could dampen the enthusiasm in the near term, executives said.

In just two months since its July high of $147 a barrel, the price of oil has fallen by roughly $50. Those airlines that hedged a portion of their fuel needs while prices were higher are at risk of losing money on those positions now that oil prices are lower.

Even so, the specter of bankruptcy that was back on airlines' and analysts' radar screens in May has seemed to diminish in the months since. Some airlines are even talking about the possibility of pretax profits or modest losses in the third quarter, which ends Sept. 30.

"While far from assured, the potential for record 2009 profits is likely to strike many by surprise," JP Morgan airline analyst Jamie Baker said in a research note Wednesday.

Many airlines have been cutting capacity, raising fares and making other changes to their businesses to deal with hefty fuel costs. For some, the changes have been paying off in terms of higher passenger revenue per available seat mile.

Delta Air Lines Inc. said yesterday it expects to end the year with slightly less cash on hand than previously forecast.

The Atlanta-based company updated investors on its financial situation before an analysts' conference in New York at which Delta President and Chief Financial Officer Ed Bastian spoke. Executives of several other airlines also spoke at the Calyon Securities Airline Conference.

Bastian said Delta expects its third-quarter results to be in the range of break even to a modest loss.

Delta, which plans to acquire Eagan, Minn.-based Northwest Airlines Corp. in a stock-swap deal expected to be completed by the end of the year, projects it will end the fourth quarter with $3.1 billion in liquidity, including a fully drawn $1 billion credit line.

In June, the company forecast it would end the year with $3.2 billion in liquidity, including the credit line, which at that time it had not yet tapped.

Bastian said Delta and Northwest combined are projected to have $6 billion in cash by the end of the year. He said cash preservation is a priority, and that both companies have been looking at new opportunities.

He said Delta does not expect to take a hit from fuel hedging in the third quarter like what United Airlines forecast Wednesday. At the same time, Bastian said that with respect to fuel hedges currently in place, Delta in the near term will not be able to take advantage of the recent significant drop in the market price for fuel.

Bastian said that Delta is projecting passenger revenue per available seat mile to be up 9 percent to 10 percent in the third quarter.

Fort Worth, Texas-based AMR Corp., parent of American Airlines, said yesterday that including the American Eagle commuter carrier, its companywide increase in so-called unit revenue will range between 9.4 percent and 10.4 percent in the third quarter, compared to a year ago.

AMR now expects to spend $9.46 billion on fuel for all of 2008, down from a July forecast of $10.2 billion. AMR also said it netted $294 million by selling 27.1 million new shares of stock. The money, it said, will go for "general corporate purposes."

AMR said it expects to end the third quarter with about $4.9 billion in cash and short-term investments, including $455 million in restricted cash. The company ended the second quarter with $5.5 billion in cash and short-term investments, including $434 million in restricted cash.

Beverly Goulet, American's vice president of corporate development and treasurer, said the recent decline in oil prices has helped the company, "but the questions about the steady-state price of fuel and the direction of the economy are as yet unanswered."

Northwest said it could make a pretax profit of $60 million to $100 million in the third quarter. The profit prediction did not count potential hedging gains or losses, and the company did not project earnings per share.

Northwest Chief Financial Officer Dave Davis said at the airline conference that new fees for checked baggage brought in $370,000 on Aug. 31 alone, and the company expects $150 million to $200 million per year in new revenue from those fees.

One of United's financial advantages has been that much of its fleet is debt-free. Kathryn Mikells, the company's chief of investor relations and incoming chief financial officer, said that even though credit markets are tighter, United still believes it can borrow against the planes.