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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Monday, September 29, 2008

Hannemann failed to capitalize on Leeward popularity in primary

By Derrick DePledge
Advertiser Government Writer

Hawaii news photo - The Honolulu Advertiser
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Hawaii news photo - The Honolulu Advertiser
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A breakdown of the Honolulu mayoral primary by state House district shows Mayor Mufi Hannemann took every district but did not fully capitalize on his popularity in a swath of Waipahu, 'Ewa Beach and Kapolei that probably would have given him a complete victory on Sept. 20.

In eight state House districts where Hannemann approached or exceeded 60 percent of the vote, four districts had above-average voter turnout while four had below-average voter turnout.

If the Hannemann campaign had pushed turnout closer to average in these below-average districts where he was popular — clustered on the Leeward side where support for a $3.7 billion mass-transit project is the strongest — he likely would have avoided a November runoff with City Councilwoman Ann Kobayashi.

Split another way, Hannemann broke 50 percent of the vote — the threshold needed for re-election in the primary — in seven of the 10 districts with the lowest turnout.

The breakdown, prepared by The Advertiser, documents an impressive showing for Hannemann. The mayor was ahead of Kobayashi 49.4 percent to 30.2 percent — or by a spread of more than 30,000 votes — while University of Hawai'i-Manoa engineering professor Panos Prevedouros took a surprising 17.7 percent.

Voter turnout was a disappointing 37 percent.

Hannemann was ahead in every House district, including districts in East Honolulu and Manoa where Kobayashi and Prevedouros were considered more competitive, and the mayor only dropped 14 precincts clustered around Kobayashi's Manoa-area council district and on the North Shore and Windward side.

"We are pleased with the fact that we did win every district throughout the island; that was very gratifying," said A. J. Halagao, Hannemann's campaign coordinator. "In the areas where we probably did the best, the turnout was the lowest, but that's not across the board.

"We just have to work harder in those areas to get the people out to vote."

Halagao also said that the campaign is not taking the mayor's primary performance for granted in November. "We're not going to take anything for granted. We're going to work just as hard or even harder," he said.

City Councilman Donovan Dela Cruz, Kobayashi's campaign manager, said the campaign is still analyzing the primary results.

"The bottom line is we've got to get out there and touch people," he said. "We're going to continue to sign-wave. We're going to continue to canvass, continue to do coffee hours and go to community events.

"Any time any group wants to meet with Ann, we're going to try to be there."

Dela Cruz said the primary results reflected the campaign's late start at the filing deadline in July. "They also reflected that we are running against a machine with a lot of money," he said. "Despite that, we're working hard."

Kobayashi's campaign hopes to pick up voters who went with Prevedouros in the primary. Prevedouros has said he would vote for Kobayashi in the general election and is expected to announce soon whether he will formally endorse her in the race.

Reach Derrick DePledge at ddepledge@honoluluadvertiser.com.

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