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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Sunday, April 12, 2009

Farmers' shield from recession weakens with crop prices

By Josh Funk
Associated Press

Hawaii news photo - The Honolulu Advertiser

Farming communities, like Gretna, Neb., are now feeling the nation's economic chill more acutely as crop prices fall.

NATI HARNIK | Associated Press

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WAHOO, Neb. — Farming communities that were largely insulated from the recession last year by high crop prices and other factors are now feeling the nation's economic chill more acutely as corn, wheat and soybeans become cheaper and land values fall.

Farmers across the Midwest and Plains states are increasingly cautious about spending on new equipment and land, and that is threatening businesses that until recently had been spared serious financial hardship.

At the John Deere dealership in Wahoo, combines and tractors farmers ordered last year with proceeds from $7 per-bushel corn are still being delivered — even though corn prices are now closer to $4 per bushel. The activity doesn't yet reflect how frugal many farmers have become because of falling crop prices, dwindling land values and problems in the ethanol industry.

About 30 miles south of Wahoo, farmer Steven Althouse is bracing for what could be a tough year because the price of fertilizer and fuel remains relatively high compared with plummeting crop prices.

"Overall, I think conservative is probably the word that would best describe where we're at on things," Althouse said.

Limiting costs is one of Althouse's top goals on the roughly 5,000 acres he farms with his cousin.

The U.S. Agriculture Department predicts that farm income will fall some 20 percent, or $18.1 billion, to $71.2 billion this year. The lessons of the 1980s farm crisis — when farmers learned the dangers of assuming too much debt when times are good — are about to be tested.

"People that took on a lot of debt — these are the ones I think are going to be in some trouble," said Iowa State University economics professor Mike Duffy.

But Althouse says that even when corn and soybean prices soared to their highest levels in decades last year — pushed higher by a burgeoning ethanol industry that has since retreated — he avoided making big purchases that didn't fit within his normal replacement schedule.

"Things did look good last year, but I kind of had a feeling that those type of things don't last long," he said.

Last year's strong corn, wheat and soybean prices benefited farmers and everyone they buy from, keeping unemployment rates low in states like Nebraska and the Dakotas.

The Midwest and Plains states also missed most of the housing-related problems in the economy over the past year because home values didn't boom or bust.

And area economists have said rural bankers tended to be more cautious when lending, and were unlikely to invest in the risky mortgage-backed securities that have hurt several major investment banks.

But not every agriculture business has excelled recently. Many livestock businesses, especially feedlots, suffered losses last year because the high grain prices raised their feed costs at the same time the recession curtailed demand for meat.