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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Thursday, August 6, 2009

Fantasy football: Will T.O. Effect hit Bills, Cowboys?


By JOHN McFARLAND
Associated Press Writer

The often unpredictable Terrell Owens is pretty predictable when it comes to fantasy football.

Every two or three years it goes like this: He switches employers, grumbles about a few former teammates, declares love for his new teammates and then puts up big numbers. His new quarterback/pal also puts up improved stats, while his former BFF’s numbers start to sink.
You could call it the T.O. Effect.
The big question this year, as an aging Owens joins a Buffalo offense that was painfully bland last year, is whether the T.O. Effect works a third time.
The phenomenon started taking shape five years ago, after Owens’ messy departure from his first team, San Francisco, landed him in a briefly blissful relationship with Donovan McNabb in Philadelphia.
Owens was coming off a pretty good year with the 49ers, with 1,100 yards and nine scores in 2003. In his first year with the Eagles, he improved to 1,200 yards, 14 scores and a remarkable recovery from injury in time for a strong Super Bowl performance.
McNabb’s passing yardage jumped by nearly 700 yards and he threw a career-high 31 touchdowns — up from just 16 the year before.
The 49ers’ Jeff Garcia, meanwhile, is still suffering from a T.O. hangover.
While Owens was doing bird-flapping TD celebrations that first year with the Eagles, Garcia was getting hurt a lot while throwing 10 TDs and nine interceptions for Cleveland. Garcia, who had 102 scores over a four-year stretch with Owens as a primary target, has been on five teams since and hasn’t surpassed 13 touchdowns in a season.
The T.O. Effect’s second run began in 2005, when the Eagles essentially fired him seven games into the season.
McNabb’s T.O. hangover was immediate. He had been bothered by injuries most of that season but still threw 15 touchdowns before Owens was sent packing. Without Owens, McNabb had just one more touchdown and was shut down after nine games because of a sports hernia.
When Owens regained employment the next year in Dallas, he went for nearly 1,200 yards and 13 touchdowns.
As for Tony Romo, you could say his stats enjoyed the T.O. Effect twice.
The first instance came six games into that 2006 season, when he came off the bench as an undrafted free agent and replaced the ineffective Drew Bledsoe.
Romo and Owens clicked instantly. Romo threw his first career score to Owens, who had nine touchdowns in the final 11 games. Romo finished with 19 touchdowns, a significant increase from zero the year before. In 2007, Romo’s first full year with Owens, Romo’s touchdown pass count jumped to 36. Owens had 15 of them, including a four-TD game and a couple of two-score games.
In Buffalo, Owens is doing and saying all the right things early on — as he does at every new stop. And he’s looked as impressive as ever in camp.
Now will the rest of the T.O. Effect follow?
Owens is 35, after all, an age when most receivers no longer produce at a high level. That said, some of the best receivers manage to hang on longer. Jerry Rice, Cris Carter and Tim Brown all had big numbers at 35 or older. (Many fans of T.O., especially T.O., would agree that he is one of the greatest receivers.)
Another big question mark is Owens’ latest quarterback. Trent Edwards has so far shown few signs of rivaling Romo, McNabb or even Garcia.
This is a guy with 11 career touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Some of that may be due to a vanilla scheme in Buffalo, but some of it may be talent. It shouldn’t take long to find out because the Bills plan to go with a no-huddle offense at times.
As for the flip side of the T.O. Effect, it’s hard to imagine a huge drop for Romo based on T.O.’s absence alone. He still has Jason Witten and Roy Williams, as well as good receivers out of the backfield.
There is a chance the Cowboys become more conservative and run a lot more, considering their full stable of healthy running backs and Romo’s penchant for disappearing late in the season.
Whatever the reason, a fall in Romo’s stats would make him the third victim of the T.O. Effect.