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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Monday, August 31, 2009

Fantasy Football: Keep track of the schedule when making plans


By Ed Barkowitz
Philadelphia Daily News

There’s an inherent hazard when trying to determine the difficulty of an NFL team’s schedule and how it relates to an individual player’s fantasy value.

Because the league changes so much — were the Cardinals really in the Super Bowl last year? — about the only thing to do is try to look at each team’s December slate and use your best judgment. December, of course, is the most crucial time for fantasy.
Let’s look at the Cardinals, for instance.
From Weeks 14-16, they seemingly have favorable matchups at San Francisco, at Detroit and home against St. Louis.
Then you look at the Packers in a similar span. From Weeks 13-15, Green Bay hosts Baltimore and is at Chicago and Pittsburgh. If you have a debate between taking Kurt Warner or Aaron Rodgers, the December portion of their respective schedules might suggest taking Warner.
What the December schedules have no way of forecasting is whether Warner — or Rodgers, for that matter — will be on injured reserve by the time winter rolls around.
Here are some other schedule-related observations:
—Atlanta has four home games in five weeks starting Week 12. Last year, Falcons running back Michael Turner averaged 132 yards rushing at home and just under 84 on the road.
—Matt Forte and the Bears are at Baltimore in Week 15 and host Minnesota in Week 16. Those two were third and first against the run in 2008. The Bears do travel to Detroit in Week 17, but not every fantasy league plays that final week of the NFL season.
—Three of the Cowboys’ final five games are against NFC East rivals, including Week 16 against a Redskins defense that added run-stuffer Albert Haynesworth and an Eagles D that gave up only seven rushing touchdowns last year, second fewest in the NFL. Marion Barber owners beware.
—The Week 16 trip to Philadelphia could be a little hairy for Denver’s Knowshon Moreno, assuming he’s still the Broncos’ primary running back. But two December games against Kansas City (Weeks 13 and 17) are encouraging.
—Peyton Manning and the Colts will have no cold-weather issues from Weeks 12-16, but the trip to Buffalo in Week 17 figures to be a different story.
—Kansas City closes with Denver twice, Buffalo and Cleveland at home and a trip to Cincinnati. Assuming the Chiefs haven’t packed it in again — they went 0-4 in December last year with an ugly 16-6 loss at the Bengals in the finale — these should be favorable matchups.
—Three of the Saints’ final six are against NFC South opponents, a group that Drew Brees averaged 318 yards passing against a year ago.
—The Giants’ first three December games are against NFC East opponents and they close the season at Minnesota. Rushing yardage might be tough to come by.
—The Eagles get cross-country visits from San Francisco and Denver in Weeks 15 and 16. Brian Westbrook, ankle willing, could have monsters.
—Steven Jackson could be productive, since St. Louis closes with Houston, at Arizona and San Francisco. Then again, the Rams could be 2-11 heading into the stretch, and Kenneth Darby — or Terrence Trent D’Arby, for that matter — could be their running back.

2009 SEASON BYE WEEKS
Week 4: Cardinals, Eagles, Falcons, Panthers.
Week 5: Bears, Chargers, Packers, Saints
Week 6: Colts, Cowboys, Dolphins, 49ers
Week 7: Broncos, Jaguars, Lions, Ravens, Seahawks, Titans
Week 8: Bengals, Bucs, Chiefs, Patriots, Redskins, Steelers
Week 9: Bills, Browns, Jets, Raiders, Rams, Vikings
Week 10: Giants, Texans