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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Monday, December 28, 2009

NFL: Examining 49er QB Alex Smith’s latest plus-minus tally


By Mark Purdy
San Jose Mercury News

Was it a good game or bad game for Alex Smith?

Answer: Yes. Definitely.
Sorry. But that is where we are with the 49ers quarterback right now. Each week, we search for signs that Smith will be the team’s next great playoff signal-caller. Each week, instead, we get gloriously mixed signals. And we usually get a moment just like the moment in Sunday’s third quarter.
The moment happened after the 49ers’ first touchdown in their 20-6 victory over Detroit. Smith trotted to the sideline. He could tell that his coach was not happy.
How? Because Mike Singletary was wearing his Angry Freeway Billboard Glare Of Doom. It is the same expression that so many Highway 101 commuters see every day as part of the 49ers’ advertising campaign.
“Coach, be nice, be nice,” Smith said to Singletary.
Singletary decided to be nicer than he wanted to be. Smith had just thrown a pass for six points. But the play should have been a touchdown run — by Smith.
Instead, as he rolled right and saw the front corner of the end zone wide open for an easy six points on foot, Smith pulled up at the 2-yard line and lofted the ball to tight end Vernon Davis in the back of the end zone.
“Next time, just dive in or something,” Singletary said later, in mock annoyance. “You know, I need to get both of them in a room and lock the door and find out if Vernon had told him that he needed another touchdown or something.”
Smith denied such an agreement with Davis.
“Nothing, besides that he paid me,” Smith said with a straight face.
Kidding. Just kidding.
“Alex is not a selfish person,” Davis said, with an even straighter face. “He cares about others.”
All right, so it’s not exactly snappy “Seinfeld” dialogue. But on days like this, you take your entertainment any way you can find it. And your analysis.
In this case, the touchdown pass to Davis exemplified all that is so stomach-churn frustrating about Smith: He made a good play. But he could have made a simpler, even better play.
Although, in truth, it might be impossible to take completely seriously anything that happened Sunday at Candlestick. There is nothing more meaningless in the NFL than a late December game between two non-playoff teams — unless it is one of those same games involving the hapless Lions. They have not been a December factor since leaving the Silverdome, an indoor stadium where the Lions usually floundered, which has since been replaced by a newer indoor stadium where the Lions flounder more consistently.
Yet in spite of the opponent and the stage, we must do our best to analyze Smith’s performance. Coach’s orders. Singletary says that one main focus of these remaining games is to give Smith as much experience as possible so that all of us can “see every drop of everything that he has.”
Let’s look, then, at Smith’s plus-and-minus scoreboard against Detroit.
PLUS — In statistical terms, this was Smith’s second-best game of the season and his best as a starter. With 20 completions in 31 attempts for 230 yards and one TD, he finished the day with a 97.5 quarterback rating. That was topped only by Smith’s rating of 118.6 against Houston — although he played just the second half in that one. By the numbers, then, this was Smith’s best starting performance since December 2006, when he had a 102.4 rating in a victory at Seattle.
MINUS — This is why numbers lie: Smith sure didn’t look that good. His longest pass of the game was hardly impressive. In the first quarter, rookie receiver Michael Crabtree used a sweet head-fake to break wide open, deep up the middle. But he had to stop and wait for Smith’s underthrown ball to arrive. Crabtree bobbled it a bit, then was tackled at the 14-yard-line for a gain of 50 yards. If Smith had thrown it to Crabtree in stride, it would have been an easy touchdown. Smith’s not-so-convincing explanation was that he didn’t want to risk an overthrow: “It’s like a layup — you don’t want to necessarily make that too difficult on him.”
PLUS — Smith perfectly executed the day’s key offensive play. With the 49ers leading by just 10 points in the third quarter, they faced a fourth-and-one situation at their own 46-yard line. Singletary decided to go for it. Offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye sent in a play-action pass. Smith faked a handoff to running back Frank Gore before dropping back and flipped the ball over onrushing Lions linemen to Gore, who after the fake had filtered through the line uncovered. He took the ball 48 yards to the Detroit 6-yard-line and three plays later scored the game-clinching touchdown.
MINUS — That very same big play to Gore, essentially a 6-yard completion followed by a 42-yard run, was credited as a 48-yard pass completion to Smith, which further skewed his quarterback rating to the deceptively positive.
PLUS — Smith avoided throwing an interception Sunday and came close only once, on a throw to the left flat. Singletary’s view of his quarterback’s work: “I thought he made good decisions. I thought his judgment was good. “& I thought he was pretty consistent, nothing great, but consistent.”
MINUS — Smith’s third-down efficiency remained an unimpressive 29 percent. And while there were no interceptions, Smith still had four passes batted down at the line of scrimmage. That tells you the Lions are onto something about him. Singletary thinks it might be the 49ers offense’s tendency to be so reliant on timing, so that defensive linemen simply count to three and raise their arms. Solution? Cut blocks by the offensive linemen. Or pump-fakes and throws elsewhere by Smith.
PLUS — Smith remained calm when necessary and isn’t defensive when his errors are mentioned. He knows where he needs improvement. That won’t silence the fans who want to dump him and look for another quarterback. But they need to be realistic. What better quarterbacks are out there and easily available? Drafting a rookie would require another few years of development patience. The Bears tried a quick upgrade by trading for Jay Cutler. How’s that working out for them? Are the Vikings still 100 percent delighted about Brett Favre? Did you like Detroit’s awful quarterbacking?
MINUS — You wish that Smith would help the 49ers make the decision about his future a no-brainer for them. And he still isn’t doing it.
PLUS — Smith did not go hungry Sunday night, thanks to Davis, who appreciated his quarterback’s touchdown gift and said: “I’m going to have to take him to dinner. Wherever he wants to go.”
MINUS — Can we ever get past the stage where the quarterback, even jokingly, is asking his coach to “be nice” to him?