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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Sunday, February 1, 2009

COMMENTARY
Asia prefers reassurance

By Ralph A. Cossa

Hawaii news photo - The Honolulu Advertiser

A saleswoman wearing a President Obama mask promotes a Japanese publisher's Obama speech DVD in Tokyo. Japanese observers are wary of Obama and the Democrats, believing they may lean closer to China at Japan's expense.

ITSUO INOUYE | Associated Press

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As President Obama begins to address the domestic and foreign policy challenges confronting the United States, it will be easy to overlook Northeast Asia, given the ongoing domestic and global financial crisis, two wars, and other looming challenges. But these immediate challenges must not distract his administration from doing a few smart things, early on, to reinforce America's policy and position in a region of growing economic and strategic importance.

Reassurance is the key word here. A constant question and refrain one hears throughout Asia, and especially in China and Japan, is: "Obama ran on a platform of 'change,' but we like things pretty much the way they are. What's really going to change, and why?"

Obama has sent some early signals of reassurance to Japan, underscoring that the U.S.-Japan alliance remains the "anchor of U.S. economic and security interests in the region and across the globe." Nonetheless, for reasons not entirely clear or logical, there is a widespread perception in Japan that Republicans like Japan more than Democrats do. There also is growing concern that an Obama administration will continue the U.S. "strategic tilt" toward China that many in Japan perceive (in my view wrongly) as already under way.

Washington understands the difference between a trusted ally and a potential partner and/or competitor, but this does little to assuage Japanese concerns, especially at a time when its government is particularly weak. Making sure a few well-known Japan hands are in senior positions will help provide needed reassurance, as will naming a prominent, well-respected former official as ambassador to Tokyo. (We admit to a certain amount of bias in promoting former Assistant Secretary of Defense and current Pacific Forum Board Chairman Joseph Nye.)

Ironically, many Chinese also worry about having a Democrat in the Oval Office, although more so due to trade and human-rights policies. Obama can send an important signal just by repeating the "responsible stakeholder" phrase that has come to symbolize U.S.-China relations during President Bush's second term — it replaced the "strategic competitor" catch phrase with one that indicated China would be seen as part of the solution, not part of the problem, as long as it acted in a cooperative, constructive manner. Using this phrase — rather than inventing a new one that will then be overanalyzed for months to come — would provide a welcome sign of continuity.

Increased military-to-military ties should be part of any package to improve Sino-U.S. relations. Serious discussion of confidence-building measures is long overdue and stronger efforts must be made to promote greater understanding and transparency. As relations between China and Taiwan continue to improve — and Washington should be seen as being unconditionally supportive of cross-Strait diplomatic efforts while being careful not to put itself in the middle of them — this removes a principal irritant and opens the door for greater Sino-U.S. cooperation. At the same time, Beijing needs to understand that Washington will continue to hedge its bets, as will the rest of Asia, as it closely watches to see if China's rise is indeed peaceful.

When it comes to Korea, Obama has already signaled strong support for the Six-Party Talks but must also reassure Pyongyang that it will continue direct dialogue and avoid unhelpful inflammatory rhetoric.

This does not mean that he should reverse or undercut the strong signal sent by the Bush administration on the all-important issue of verification of North Korea's plutonium stockpiles and disarmament efforts. Candidate Obama said, "If North Korea refuses to permit robust verification, we should lead all members of the Six-Party Talks in suspending energy assistance, re-imposing sanctions that have recently been waived, and considering new restrictions." Obama must repeat and reinforce this message.

Meanwhile, the Koreans Obama most needs to talk to reside in the South. U.S.-South Korea policy vis-a-vis the North has been out of synch for much of the past decade. (We went from the U.S. being too hard and South Korea being too soft to Washington now seeming more flexible than Seoul.) The two allies need to get back on the same page to effectively deal with Pyongyang. Common ground between the extremes of rejection and renegotiation also needs to be found to rescue the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement. Its passage would benefit both economies in troubled times; its failure will put significant strains on the South Korea-U.S. relationship.

A few well-chosen words and deeds demonstrating America's continued commitment to peace and stability in Northeast Asia can set the stage for an effective foreign policy in this vital region in the years to come. In Asia, continuity is needed as much as change, and a little reassurance still goes a long way.

Ralph Cossa is president of the Pacific Forum Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Honolulu-based think tank specializing in current and emerging political, security, economic and business issues across the Pacific Rim. He wrote this commentary for The Advertiser.