Next year will probably be a year of stabilization for Hawaii’s economy, with a more sustained recovery probably coming in 2011, according to a new forecast by economist Leroy Laney.

Laney, speaking at this morning’s First Hawaiian Bank Annual Business Outlook Forum, said a return to economic growth most likely will be gradual, even as the national economy improves and a tenuous recovery occurs in Japan.
The Hawaii Pacific University professor and economic adviser to First Hawaiian noted jobs typically lag recovery and that tourism will have to show signs of sustained improvement before firms begin to hire again.
Laney said the number of jobs will fall by about 0.5 percent next year, while unemployment should average 7.5 percent for the year.
He also projected inflation will remain subdued at 1 percent in 2010, while visitor arrivals will rise by 1.7 percent if there are no unforeseen shocks to the visitor industry.
Personal income adjusted for inflation is likely to be sub-par at 0.5 percent growth, he said.
Laney also reiterated an earlier prediction that it’s possible for Hawaii’s economy to be firing on all cylinders in 2011.