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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Thursday, November 19, 2009

MLB: Sizing up baseball’s free-agent market


By Steve Popper
The Record (Hackensack N.J.)

What would happen if there were teams all set to spend to secure talent and there was little talent there to bid on?

We will find out beginning Friday, when free agency begins, and the answer is most likely that a handful of players are going to find themselves the object of an intense bidding war with their price escalating. The flip side is that some baseball executives believe that the rest of the free agent crop will fall through the cracks, sitting and waiting unless they are willing to take a bargain deal.
That means that Matt Holliday and Jason Bay will be the target of every team with an outfield or big bat vacancy. Chone Figgins will be pursued by teams with needs at third base and in the outfield. But more than anyone else, John Lackey will find himself being chased by every team with a hole at the front of the rotation.
The Mets insist that they will be in on the big-money free agents. The Yankees will be looking, but have to decide on their own trio of vital free agents — Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui and Andy Pettitte.
While Lackey may have holes in his game and not be the equal of Roy Halladay, who is on the trading block (costing prospects and a pricey extension), he is the class of this class.
And that’s the truth about this class — few sure things and few stars. Now can someone just mention that to the agents who will be asking superstar prices for their players?
THE FREE AGENTS
John Lackey, RHP: He was 11-8 in 2009 with a 3.83 ERA — 12th in the American League. Does that sound like a pitcher in the class of Johan Santana or CC Sabathia? Or is he merely the most fortunate pitcher, coming to free agency as a very good pitcher when there isn’t a great one on the market? However he got here, Lackey will draw interest from the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox and Phillies, which is all he needs to create a big-market chase.
Matt Holliday, LF: Want to risk your job as a general manager? How about trying to figure the value of Holliday? Is he the three-time All-Star from his days with the Rockies? Or was that a product of the mile-high air? Is he the player who struggled in Oakland’s spacious stadium? Or the heart-of-the-order slugger who provided a perfect complement to Albert Pujols with the Cardinals? So who wants in on that risk? The Mets, Red Sox and Cards all need a bat in left — but not at that price. Or that risk.
Jason Bay, LF: So if you don’t want to meet Boras’ price on Holliday, how about the closest thing — Bay? He flourished again in Boston in the heat of a playoff hunt, after a career of anonymity in Pittsburgh. But then again there was that 1-for-8 performance in the ALDS this year. So what’s the price? He will find suitors likely those not willing to wait for Boras and the price on Holliday to come down.
Chone Figgins, 3B/LF: A one-of-a-kind talent, Figgins can add RF and 2B to his resume. He steals bases, hits for average, walked 101 times this year and is a spark plug at the top of the order. But don’t forget that he struck out 114 times this year or that he was 3-for-23 against the Yankees in the ALCS.
Mark DeRosa, 3B/1B/LF: Did I say that Figgins was one of a kind? OK, well, Carlstadt’s DeRosa is a different kind of similar player. He can play almost every position and play it well, but comes with a little more power than Figgins and not so much speed. The 35-year-old is beloved in every city he’s played in and the Mets might figure as the next one.
Joel Pineiro, RHP: While he might not be the ace that some teams are looking for, he is a masterful control pitcher who had the fewest number of walks per nine innings in the National League and gave up the fourth fewest home runs per nine innings. But he also put together his best season in six years in a walk year. The Mets could be interested.
Randy Wolf, LHP: At 32 years old, Wolf surfaced from free agency when he was left for scraps at the end of the market to have one of the best seasons of his career this year. Like Pineiro, he oddly came up with his best season in six years.
Aroldis Chapman, LHP: Did you say you were looking for an ace? How about a 22-year-old lefty who has hit 102 on the radar gun? Chapman, a Cuban defector, has that resume, but also has displayed some inconsistencies in his appearances in the World Baseball Classic and other international tournaments. Depending on the price tag, which won’t be cheap, the Yankees are expected to be at the head of the line for his services, but he’s also met with the Red Sox, Mets and Tigers.
Orlando Hudson, 2B: The Mets wanted him last year and they want him again if they could only find a trade partner to take Luis Castillo off their hands. It could happen this year with Castillo coming off a solid season. Hudson actually lost his job at times this year with the Dodgers, but still holds allure.
Erik Bedard, LHP: In 2007, he was fifth in the American League Cy Young balloting and now he’s a high-risk project. How did that happen? The Mariners sent away a package of talented pieces to get him and have regretted it since. Teammates grumble about his personality and GMs wonder about his arm as his numbers have dropped precipitously.
Rich Harden, RHP: Tantalizingly talented, Harden has never seemed to live up to that potential. He has been plagued by shoulder problems although he insists he is healthy now after a 9-9, 4.39 ERA season with the Cubs. Might go back to the Cubs or slip through the cracks as a cheap risk for some team.