WAILUKU — Local merchants predict a lackluster Christmas shopping season, and instead of ordering more for the holidays some Maui merchants have already cut back their inventory because consumers are clinging to their wallets.

"I know it will be less. There is no doubt about that. How much less I don't know," said Jo Ann Carroll, owner of Old Lahaina Book Emporium on Front Street, when predicting her Christmas sales.

Carroll said her store's sales already are down 30 percent this year, as compared with other years.

She expects repeat customers and tourists to still patronize her shop but said they might not be spending as much.

"There will be those people that always come; they probably won't spend as much. I think a lot of people are spending their money on hotel rooms and food and are cutting back on other things," said Carroll, whose business is evenly spilt between locals and tourists.

"I think Christmas is going to make or break a lot of companies," said Randi Visitacion, owner of Lee-Bear & Co., a candy and snacks retailer in Kahului.

She said the 2008 holiday season was "slow," but she is remaining optimistic that sales will pick up. Her store earns more than half its profits during the holiday season. "For us it's seasonal, so if we have a bad Christmas, that just pretty much gives us an outlook for next year."

"(We're) crossing our fingers," Visitacion said last week.

This Friday after Thanksgiving is "Black Friday" and the beginning of the traditional Christmas shopping season when retailers hope to move from the red (losses) to the black (profits). Already stores such as Sears have been peppering newspapers with inserts advertising "Black Friday Now Doorbusters" discounts this past weekend.

Visitacion said she has cut back on her ordering of store products "a little bit" or about 10 percent because of the slower customer traffic.

During the holidays, she said, her most popular sellers are premade baskets filled with handmade goodies, such as milk-chocolate-covered Oreos and candies, including Red Vines licorice, along with a white-chocolate-covered mix of pretzels and Rice Krispies.

Visitacion hopes her business can get a boost from her annual sale from Nov. 30 through Dec. 5, where everything will be at least 10 percent off in her store, which also carries candy-making materials.

At Maui Toy Works at the Lahaina Cannery Mall and Whalers Village, owner Robert Loera said that since September or October this year, he has cut back on his ordering since there was "not a lot of cash flow" and those months are usually his two stores' slow times anyway.

He said instead of placing orders that cost $15,000 to $20,000, he is now placing weekly orders of $3,000 to $4,000.

After 27 years in the toy business, Loera said, he has seen a lot of slowdowns including during the Desert Storm war and after 9/11.

"(But) this one is definitely a good one," he said.

He said business is probably off 20 to 25 percent for the year.

But Loera said they are going to keep "real positive" this Christmas season and continue to obtain unique and special gifts at the best prices that he can find.

He said parents would be happy to know that his store still has popular items such as Bakugan Battle Brawlers, action figures and Yu-Gi-Oh! Japanese manga trading cards.

He's also taking orders for one of the hot toys this Christmas, the Zhu Zhu Pets Hamster, an interactive toy pet, although they won't be in until January.

Another toy retailer, Maui Child Toys & Books, which specializes in handmade, fair-trade toys from around the world, also expects sales to be slow.

"Obviously people have less money, no question. I saw last year that overall there was a big decline already. I actually did better than a lot of people. People are always going to buy gifts for kids," said Shay Chan Hodges, owner of the Makawao store.

With the economic slowdown, she said she feels that consumerism has changed and people are less interested in quantity and more interested in quality.

She said instead of buying handfuls of cheaply made toys at big-box stores, she hopes people will come to her store and buy a little more expensive toy, but one that will last a lifetime.

She added that as a parent, she is also careful of her purchasing choices.

Her store also has lots of items that are less than $10 including little marble animals — from a fair-trade business in Ecuador — along with other $5 stocking stuffers.

She's also hoping people show up in December as "most every book" will be 50 percent off until Christmas.

More Maui News at www.mauinews.com.