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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Wednesday, October 21, 2009

CFB predictions: TCU takes aim at Boise St in BCS race


By RALPH D. RUSSO
AP College Football Writer

Boise State better watch its back. TCU is trying to bust into the BCS, too.

The sixth-ranked Broncos have drawn the most attention of the teams from the non-automatic BCS qualifying conferences this season. Boise State started the season with a convincing victory against Oregon and has spent the last five weeks ranked in the top 10.
When the first BCS standings arrived Sunday, Boise State was fourth.
TCU has taken a slow climb, starting the season ranked No. 17 in the AP poll and rising to No. 10. The Horned Frogs were eighth in the BCS standings and can make the case for a jump Saturday with a victory at No. 16 BYU.
“No thoughts,” TCU coach Gary Patterson said when asked about the BCS standings. “We’re in the top 10. We’re playing BYU. If we don’t win this ballgame, it doesn’t make any difference anyway.”
True, but the race within the BCS chase has become fascinating stuff.
While there is already percolating debate about whether Boise State has a chance to play for the national title, the better question might be: Will the Broncos of the Western Athletic Conference, even if they go undefeated, get shut out of the BCS for a second consecutive season in favor of the Mountain West Conference champion.
The Horned Frogs haven’t beaten any one team as good as Oregon so far, but they do have road victories against Clemson and Virginia.
The conventional wisdom is the MWC is stronger than the WAC, so if TCU can navigate that league without a loss it will trump Boise State’s unbeaten record.
While the WAC can’t match the MWC’s top three of BYU, Utah and TCU — Fresno State and Idaho behind Boise State — the Mountain West seems to have more soft spots than last year.
New Mexico is winless. San Diego State looks as bad as usual. UNLV and Colorado State, both expected to make a run at bowl-eligiblity, are under .500. Wyoming hasn’t beaten an FBS team with a winning record.
The two leagues have faced off in 10 games this season and the MWC is 6-4. If computer rankings are your thing, the Sagarin ratings have the Mountain West seventh among the major football conferences and the WAC eighth.
TCU also handed Boise State its only loss last season in the Poinsettia Bowl. There was no room for the Broncos in the BCS because unbeaten Utah earned an automatic bid.
And if TCU runs the table this season, there might not be a spot for Boise State again.
So if you’re a Boise State fan, you best be a BYU backer this week.
The picks:
Saturday
Tennessee (plus 15) at No. 1 Alabama
Vols first team since 2000 to face No. 1 twice in a season ... ALABAMA 24-13.
No. 2 Florida (minus 23) at Mississippi State
Gators’ offense due for a big game ... FLORIDA 35-10.
No. 3 Texas (minus 13) at Missouri
Longhorns are 11-0 in games after Oklahoma under Mack Brown ... TEXAS 31-14.
Oregon State (plus 20›) at No. 4 Southern California
Beavers kept USC from playing for national title last season .... USC 38-17.
Louisville (plus 18) at No. 5 Cincinnati
Whoever plays QB for Bearcats will roll against Cards’ shaky D ... CINCINNATI 40-17.
No. 6 Boise State (plus 25) at Hawaii
Broncos won’t get chance to impress anyone on Hawaii time ... BOISE STATE 48-21.
No. 7 Iowa (pick) at Michigan State
Why can’t Hawkeyes keep winning ugly? ... IOWA 24-20.
Clemson (plus 4›) at No. 8 Miami
Hurricanes and Tigers haven’t played since ’05 ... MIAMI 27-17.
Auburn (plus 7›) at No. 9 LSU
Before LSU victory last season, home team had won eight straight meetings ... LSU 21-20.
No. 10 TCU (minus 2›) at No. 16 BYU
Cougars are 5-3 against Frogs ... TCU 31-27.
No. 11 Georgia Tech (minus 5›) at Virginia
First-place Cavaliers just doesn’t sound right ... GEORGIA TECH 34-21.
No. 12 Oregon (minus 10) at Washington
Huskies about due for another upset ... WASHINGTON 34-28.
No. 13 Penn State (minus 4›) at Michigan
Nittany Lions last victory at Big House was 1996 ... MICHIGAN 28-21.
No. 14 Oklahoma State (minus 9›) at Baylor
Cowboys peeking ahead toward Longhorns? Nope ... OKLAHOMA STATE 39-17.
SMU (plus 16›) at No. 17 Houston
Cougars QB Case Keenum leads nation in yards passing (2,464) ... HOUSTON 48-28.
Minnesota (plus 18) at No. 18 Ohio State
Maybe Gophers’ struggling D can boost Buckeyes’ offense .... OHIO STATE 28-7.
Air Force (plus 9›) at No. 19 Utah
Utes’ last three victories against AFA have been by average of four points ... UTAH 24-20.
South Florida (plus 6›) at No. 20 Pittsburgh
Road team has won four of six meetings ... PITTSBURGH 28-21.
Texas A&M (plus 21›) at No. 21 Texas Tech
Aggies coming off embarrassingly bad performance ... TEXAS TECH 45-28.
Connecticut (plus 7›) at No. 22 West Virginia
Huskies to play after teammate was killed ... WEST VIRGINIA 26-21.
Vanderbilt (minus 12›) at No. 23 South Carolina
Vandy has won two straight meetings ... SOUTH CAROLINA 31-14.
No. 25 Oklahoma (minus 7) at No. 24 Kansas
Sooners have won five straight vs. Jayhawks ... OKLAHOMA 35-21.
———
Last week: 12-5 (straight); 9-8 (vs. points).
Season: 112-27 (straight); 58-63-3 (vs. points).