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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Tuesday, September 8, 2009

State disputes dropout count


By Loren Moreno
Advertiser Education Writer

The state Department of Education has disputed the number of Hawai'i high school dropouts recently reported by a national policy and advocacy organization.

The Washington, D.C.-based Alliance for Excellent Education said last week more than 6,202 students from the class of 2009 in Hawai'i dropped out of school before graduation.

"It's just way too high. That's more than half the class. It's not even close to being accurate," said Glenn Hirata, administrator of the DOE's systems evaluation and reporting section.

Hawai'i has about 10,000 students who are eligible to graduate from public high schools each year and about 16 percent don't make it, Hirata said.

"We're usually looking at about 1,600 kids who are considered dropouts," he said.

The Hawai'i dropout number was included in the Alliance for Excellent Education's report "The High Cost of High School Drop- outs" released Sept. 1.

The report said Hawai'i's economy would have benefited from more than $1.6 billion in additional income over the next 50 years had the students who dropped out of high school in the class of 2009 graduated with their peers.

The number was arrived at by multiplying the state's supposed dropout rate with the $260,000 estimated lifetime earnings difference between a high school dropout and a high school graduate.

The Alliance for Excellent Education used the graduation rate reported by Education Week of 64 percent to arrive at the Hawai'i dropout rate.

The problem with that, state Department of Education officials say, is the Ed Week number is incorrect. They say, according to the DOE's own tracking of individual students, that the state's graduation rate is closer to 79 percent.

Currently, Hawai'i uses a "cohort" method that tracks graduation rates of individual students. That means that each year, ninth-grade students entering high school are tracked through their senior year.

It's a method that about 22 states use, and is considered to be far superior than using a formula to calculate a state's graduation rate, which Ed Week does, Hirata said.

Because Hawai'i has the capability of following individual students statewide through a student-tracking system, Hirata said Hawai'i is able to produce the "pure" graduation rate of 79.2 percent. Hawai'i's dropout rate is about 16 percent, he said.

"These numbers we have at 16 percent reflect the maximum number that is likely to be the dropout number," Hirata said.

That's because the state counts students who stop showing up to school and have likely transferred out of state, such as immigrant or military students who leave with no notice.

"If we had 6,000-plus dropouts every year, we would feel it in the economy like you'd never believe," Hirata said.

Denise Konan, professor of economics at the University of Hawai'i-Manoa, said dropout rates have long-term effects on the economy and on the quality of life of the individual dropout.

"Those that are dropping out are trying to get into the workforce with less skills; they are likely to face higher unemployment, and that has a negative social impact. And if they are employed, they are likely to be employed in low-skilled jobs and contributing less to the tax base than others," Konan said.

Konan was unable to comment on the specific report, but said in general those who achieve their high school diploma and some training or degree beyond high school are less likely to commit crimes or rely on government social services.

"In the long run, it really does pay off to finish your high school education," she said.