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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Saturday, September 26, 2009

Fed warning on interest rates rattles analysts


By Jeannine Aversa
Associated Press

Hawaii news photo - The Honolulu Advertiser

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke

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WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve's high-wire act in easing the extraordinary support it has provided the economy was on display yesterday. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said a key consumer lending program is still needed, while one of his colleagues talked about acting forcefully when the time comes to boost interest rates.

Fed member Kevin Warsh's comments that the central bank can't wait for the economy to return to normal before embarking on a rate-raising campaign to fend off inflation rattled some investors.

"If policymakers insist on waiting until the level of real activity has plainly and substantially returned to normal — and the economy has returned to self-sustaining trend growth — they will almost certainly have waited too long," Warsh warned in a speech in Chicago.

And when the time comes to boost rates, the Fed may need to act with "greater swiftness than is modern central bank custom," Warsh said. "The speed and force of the action ahead may bear some corresponding symmetry to the path that preceded it."

That would be the case if the economy were to turn up "smartly and durably," he said.

Some analysts viewed those comments as raising the specter that interest rates will have to rise sooner than many anticipated. That was especially perplexing because Warsh spoke just days after the Fed pledged to hold rates at a record low near zero for an "extended period." Many economists took that to mean for the rest of this year and into part of next year.

"It's all very confusing," said Michael Feroli an economist at JPMorgan Economics, who has been predicting the Fed wouldn't boost rates until early 2011. "Now it seems sooner than that. Some are wondering if rate increases will come this year."

Meanwhile, Bernanke said a government program intended to spark lending to consumers and businesses is still necessary even with other emergency lending programs winding down as the economy recovers.

"An ongoing need still clearly exists" for the program, which also is aimed at making sure loans flow to the troubled commercial real estate market, Bernanke said in brief remarks to a conference here sponsored by the Congressional Black Caucus Foundation.

The Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility goes to the heart of efforts by the Fed and Obama administration to get credit flowing more normally again, a key ingredient to a lasting economic recovery. The Fed has extended the TALF — which has the potential to generate up to $1 trillion in lending for households and businesses — into next year. It was originally set to expire at the end of this year.

Under the program, which started in March, the Fed provides loans to investors. They use the money to buy newly issued securities backed by auto and student loans, credit cards, business equipment, commercial real estate and loans guaranteed by the Small Business Administration.

Bernanke said the program is responsible for indirectly financing nearly 3 million loans to households — excluding credit cards — and nearly 400,000 loans to small business. The program has attracted 121 borrowers so far, including investors of all sizes, he said.

But analysts say it is still difficult for many consumers to secure loans, one of the forces threatening to restrain the budding economic recovery.

In fielding questions after his remarks, Bernanke said the TALF program helped drive down rates on auto loans, which have "improved considerably."

Bernanke also said he was "hopeful the situation in the auto industry is going to improve." Auto sales — and production — have gotten a lift from the now-defunct government Cash for Clunkers program, where people got a rebate of up to $4,500 to buy new cars and trade in old gas guzzlers.