honoluluadvertiser.com

Sponsored by:

Comment, blog & share photos

Log in | Become a member
The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Tsunami forecasts quicker, more accurate


By Gordon Y.K. Pang
Advertiser Staff Writer

Hawaii news photo - The Honolulu Advertiser

Robyn Jones and Melissa Bezler of Alberta, Canada, were caught off-guard by a small wave on Waikiki Beach. The women, who were lounging on the sand in the afternoon, said they were unaware of yesterday morning’s tsunami watch. Earlier in the day, public safety authorities advised people to stay away from shorelines.

DEBORAH BOOKER | The Honolulu Advertiser

spacer spacer

TIMELINE

7:48 a.m. Earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 7.9 hits in the Samoan Islands section of the Pacific. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center issues a tsunami watch for the Hawaiian Islands as well as other coastal areas of the Pacific Rim, effective 8:05 a.m. Any tsunami waves generated are expected to arrive at 1:11 p.m. at the earliest.

8:57 a.m. The center revises the measurement of the earthquake to 8.3.

10:23 a.m. The tsunami watch for Hawaii is canceled and an advisory is issued that is to remain in effect until 7 p.m. Geophysicists at the center warn people that although there won’t be high waves, they should stay away from beaches and coastal areas because of the uncertain nature of currents and changing sea levels.

4:12 p.m. The center issues an update reporting that small tsunami waves began arriving on Hawaii shores shortly after 1 p.m. The highest sea level rises are recorded at Haleiwa (1.5 feet) and Kahului, Maui (1.2 feet).

spacer spacer
Hawaii news photo - The Honolulu Advertiser

Pacific Tsunami Warning Center oceanographer David Walsh consults with Christopher Moore, Marie Elbe and Vasily Titov, who are researchers visiting from Seattle.

BRUCE ASATO | The Honolulu Advertiser

spacer spacer

The major earthquake and tsunami in Samoa and American Samoa caused some anxious hours for the Aloha State yesterday morning.

But within three hours of the quake, scientists at the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in 'Ewa Beach were able to determine there was no serious threat to Hawai'i, and reduced what was then a tsunami watch to an advisory, thus eliminating the need to sound sirens and force the evacuation of thousands along the state's coastlines.

A decade ago, it might have been a different story and there likely would have been a full-scale evacuation of Hawai'i's coastal areas.

Technology has advanced to the point where scientists are able to determine much more quickly and accurately the speed, size and strength of tsunami waves following an earthquake, said Gerard Fryer, a geophysicist with the tsunami warning center.

"If this had happened a decade ago, Hawai'i would be in a warning," Fryer said.

But yesterday, the scientists were able to gather accurate enough data to allow them to move Hawai'i into an advisory mode that only cautioned people to stay away from beaches and the shoreline.

"We were able to make a forecast using numerical models of what we believed the impact would be in the state of Hawai'i," said Charles McCreery, director of the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center. "And for the state of Hawai'i, we could see, yes indeed tsunami waves were going to arrive here, but we did not expect them to be of a size that would cause major flooding or require a full evacuation of our coasts."

The center canceled its tsunami watch at 10:23 a.m. and issued an advisory.

A warning would have resulted in mass evacuations of the state's coastlines.

Peter Hirai, the city's deputy civil service director, recalled October 1994 when such a scenario did play out. An 8.1 earthquake off Russia's Kuril Islands triggered a tsunami warning in Hawai'i that led to a mass evacuation of the shorelines of all islands.

"It was another distant tsunami event, and not having the technology, we did do a general evacuation and the waves turned out to be pretty much the same result as today," Hirai said. "That one also turned out be pretty minimal wave action."

As of 5 p.m. yesterday, the highest sea level changes occurred at Hale'iwa (1.5 feet) and Kahului, Maui (1.2 feet).

Ray Lovell, public relations officer for state Civil Defense, remembered what happened in 1994 as well.

"It was early in the morning and the businesses didn't open, the kids didn't go to school, and everything stopped for that day," Lovell said.

The new technology helped saved the state millions in of dollars that might have been lost yesterday, he said.

Both Hirai and Lovell credit the arrival of Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis buoys in the earlier part of the decade for providing that upgrade in detection technology.

Geophysicists at the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, however, said it's more than just the buoys.

Another critical detection tool that's been put in place is the use of tsunami forecasting modeling system that can predict the movement of tsunamis with better accuracy than in the past.

Coincidentally, three members of the Seattle-based Pacific Marine Environmental Library who developed the new models were on O'ahu to train the local tsunami center staff on the latest software and were there to see their modeling system at work firsthand.