Oil companies not place to invest for quick payoff
By Greg Wiles
Advertiser Staff Writer
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Q. My gasoline purchases are taking a toll on my weekly budget. Is there a way to recoup some of what I'm spending by investing in shares of oil companies?
A. As with any investment, it's not wise to jump feet first. You should take some time to understand what you're getting into and mull how it fits with your overall financial situation.
Whether you should buy oil company shares depends on your current investments and how patient you are waiting for a return on your money. Those seeking a quick payoff might look elsewhere.
"It's like recommending people buy real estate today," said Geal Fukumoto Talbert, a certified financial planner affiliated with Legacy Group Hawaii in Kane'ohe. "It's very expensive and probably the opportunity for seeing a large profit today is not as good as it was a year or two ago."
During the past year, the American Stock Exchange Oil Index jumped 36 percent. During the past two years the index reflecting the stock performance of 13 publicly traded oil companies has almost doubled.
By comparison the Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 7.2 percent over the past year.
"If you adhere to the philosophy of buying low and selling high, then buying oil companies today wouldn't be the best recommendation," Talbert said.
There are circumstances where Talbert and Kalei Cadinha, vice president at Honolulu-based investment advisory firm Cadinha & Co., said investors can consider oil-related stocks.
They include people looking to balance their investment portfolios with energy stocks, and those seeking stocks with dividends and planning to hold them for five or more years, Talbert said.
Cadinha said economic growth and attendant increases in demand for energy were responsible for the stock prices increasing. Besides the U.S., the emerging economies of China and India are responsible for rising oil use worldwide, she said.
Investors should keep an eye on economic growth and especially a tax-advisory panel contemplating changes to the U.S. tax code, Cadinha said. The stocks may be more attractive if the panel makes recommendations that drive more economic growth.
"If you have growth policies, I think they're relatively valued, they're attractive and they should go up," said Cadinha, whose Honolulu firm manages about $750 million in assets. Among the oil companies that she tracks are those with large market capitalizations, strong balance sheets, the ability to pay high yielding dividends, diversified operations globally and good free cash flow allowing them to reinvest in the business or repurchase shares.
Among stocks meeting the criteria are Exxon Mobil Corp., BP Plc, Chevron Corp. and ConocoPhillips, Cadinha said. Exxon Mobil, for example, has a market capitalization of $354.3 billion, pays a quarterly dividend of 29 cents a share, and has debt-to-assets of 4.5 percent, according to Bloomberg data.
The company's price-to-earnings ratio is 12.11 compared with the average of companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 of 17.78.
At the same time there may be some political risk with the stocks. To bring down gasoline prices, some lawmakers have said oil companies should invest more in projects that bring extra supply to U.S. consumers quickly.
"Oil companies are enjoying record profits. That's fine, " said House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill., Tuesday. But he added, "These companies need to invest in America's energy infrastructure and resources. ... The oil companies need to do their part."
Reach Greg Wiles at gwiles@honoluluadvertiser.com.