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Republican Gov. Linda Lingle is showing signs of vulnerability a year before the 2006 election, but Democrats are still scrounging for a credible candidate to challenge her.
Lingle carried heavily Democratic Hawai'i in 2002 with a delicate balancing act that supplemented her GOP base with support from enough reform-minded Democrats and independents to beat Mazie Hirono by 17,000 votes.
But three years into her term, Democrats are antagonized by her ardent support of President Bush, independents are disappointed by her inability to deliver promised reforms and conservatives in her own party are in revolt over her refusal to veto an O'ahu transit tax or suspend controversial gasoline price caps voted by Democrats.
Nevertheless, prominent Democrats are hardly lining up to take her on.
U.S. Rep. Ed Case is happy in Congress and would rather position himself for the U.S. Senate.
The party pitted Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann against Lingle in a recent poll, but he made a campaign promise to finish his term and has shown no inclination to abandon Honolulu Hale after fewer than two years on the job.
Democrats tried to entice retired banker Walter Dods and retired Army Gen. Eric Shinseki into the race, but so far both have firmly declined.
Lesser names such as state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa, former Sen. Mike McCartney, Rep. Kirk Caldwell and Democratic chairman Brickwood Galuteria have been mentioned, but all would face uphill battles building name recognition and gaining financial backing.
Many Democrats are now trying to persuade Big Island Mayor Harry Kim, nominally a Republican, to switch parties and run against Lingle.
Another late name being floated for governor or lieutenant governor is retired Honolulu police chief Lee Donohue.
Part of the reticence of Democrats to step forward is that even their own polls show Lingle still enjoys strong favorability among voters despite all of her problems.
And her campaign bankroll is already at more than $2 million and growing, while any Democratic challenger would have to start from scratch.
Kim is the most intriguing Democratic prospect, but he carries as much risk as promise.
Elected Big Island mayor twice after a high-profile career as the county's civil defense director, Kim is a straight-talking populist who enjoys an unquestioned reputation for independence and integrity.
He could challenge Lingle's Neighbor Island strength and would stand a good chance of bringing home disenchanted Democrats who refused to support Hirono four years ago.
His moderate views would enable him to compete with Lingle among independents — and maybe even poach some unhappy Republicans.
But the risk is that the Big Island is a world of its own politically, and what works there won't necessarily play on a statewide stage.
Kim's reputation for honesty is based largely on his low-budget mayoral campaigns that refused special-interest money.
The conundrum is that if he raised the kind of money needed to match Lingle's millions — or let others do it for him — he wouldn't be Harry Kim.
Then there's the matter of his shifting political loyalties.
Kim first ran for mayor as a Republican in 2000, then as an independent last year, and now is thinking about switching to Democrat.
Changing party affiliations like underwear could cause him to be dismissed as an opportunist — or worse, a flake.
Kim's first challenge would be to explain convincingly why he thinks Lingle, his fellow Republican until a year ago, is doing a bad job and needs to be replaced.
If it's perceived to be about ego and personal ambition —simple inability to resist the plaintive call of desperate Democrats — it would threaten his claim to the political high road.
David Shapiro, a veteran Hawai'i journalist, can be reached by e-mail at dave@volcanicash.net.