A Pentagon review of U.S. forces, due to Congress on Feb. 6, is expected to call for greater military emphasis in the Pacific, but war costs, budget cuts and old-fashioned politics may mean a decision on an aircraft carrier for Hawai'i is further away than previously expected.

U.S. Rep. Ed Case, D-Hawai'i, said the Quadrennial Defense Review is expected to say greater naval forces should be forward-deployed to Guam and Hawai'i.

Concerns over China's growing military and conflict in the Taiwan Strait, North Korea's threat and potential for unrest in countries such as the Philippines and Indonesia, coupled with a cooling of tensions in Europe, argue for a greater shift of U.S. military firepower to the Pacific, experts say.

That includes the possibility of a carrier and its escort ships for Hawai'i.

The only other permanently forward-deployed carrier in the Pacific is in Japan. But such a move faces a battle of the budget and with politicians from other states that would potentially lose out on a carrier and its sizable economic impact.

"It's obvious what we want to do," Case said. "Whether we can do that (get a carrier in Hawai'i) at this point, or whether we will do it at what other expense, is where the action is."

In an ideal world, where there are no competing demands for limited defense funding, a carrier strike group would be based in Hawai'i, Case said.

"But the overall cost of assembling and equipping a carrier task force makes it a midterm objective as opposed to a short-term objective, and not one that we can advocate immediate financing for," he said, declining to specify how many years he expects that to be.

That reality has tempered expectations of a decision for a Hawai'i-based carrier group coming out of the Quadrennial Defense Review, the Pentagon's road map for the future.

"We believe that the QDR will reinforce the importance of the Pacific in the Defense Department's future plans," said Jim Tollefson, president of the Chamber of Commerce of Hawai'i.

The chamber has been a key ally in attempting to draw to Hawai'i a carrier strike group — and the thousands of jobs and millions of dollars it would mean to the local economy.

"However, in the area of the carrier, we've been made aware of budget restraints that have been placed on the military, and specifically the Navy, that may have an impact on the timing," Tollefson said. "Regardless, the chamber still is planning on the eventual placement of a carrier group in Hawai'i."

CONSIDERING COSTS

Two years ago, a recommendation for a forward-based carrier in the Pacific was on Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's desk, Case said, but the decision was made to defer discussion until the Quadrennial Defense Review was hashed out.

That was then.

InsideDefense.com reported that a program budget decision signed Dec. 28 trims $2.2 billion from the Navy's budget between fiscal 2007 and 2011, and $2.1 billion from the Army.

One estimate for moving a flattop to Hawai'i, with its 70 to 80 aircraft, pegged the cost at $2.2 billion. Even after a decision is made, it would take five to seven years for infrastructure improvements and other changes before the big ship even arrives.

Where it would come from is as sensitive as the cost issue.

Five carriers are based on the West Coast. Five are in Norfolk, Va., with one of those, the George Washington, scheduled to replace the aging Kitty Hawk in Yokosuka, Japan, in 2008. The Kennedy, based in Mayport, Fla., faces possible retirement.

More than a year ago, Case recalled that when a carrier was mentioned for Hawai'i, "Norfolk had an immediate and opposite reaction." Several new carriers also are planned to be built.

In a report for Congress on China's naval modernization, Ronald O'Rourke, a naval analyst for the Congressional Research Service, said the division of the Navy's fleet between the Atlantic and Pacific has been a longstanding question.

In recent years, 45 percent to 47 percent of the Navy's 282 ships have been assigned to the Pacific Fleet.

"Supporters of shifting a greater share of the Navy to the Pacific Fleet could argue that responding to China's naval modernization requires, among other things, maintaining an increased number of ships forward deployed to the Western Pacific," the Congressional Research Service report states.

Loren Thompson, a defense analyst with the Lexington Institute in Arlington, Va., notes the rise of China as a military power, the shift of global economic competition from the Atlantic to Pacific, and loss of land bases in Asia as cases for forward basing in Hawai'i and Guam.

"If the Pentagon had its way, there would be more Navy and Air Force assets headed to Hawai'i next week," Thompson said. "The real question is whether Congress will permit this shift of resources from the East Coast to the Pacific."

CLOSEST PORTS

A 2002 Congressional Budget Office report discussed homeporting up to 11 nuclear attack submarines in Guam. Andersen Air Force Base has hosted bomber rotations and is expected to get F-22 Raptors.

Pearl Harbor is home to 12 surface ships and 17 Los Angeles-class attack submarines. Ship travel time to the Taiwan Strait from Pearl Harbor at 30 knots is 5.9 days; 1.9 days from Guam; 8.2 days from San Diego; and 7.3 days from Everett, Wash.

The cost for homeporting a carrier strike group in Guam is estimated at $5 billion — twice that for Hawai'i. Thompson doesn't think it's going to happen.

"It's partly financial, but if we put any more military capability in Guam, the island could sink. There's just so much you can do with a little place like Guam," he said.

Case said he doesn't know what the Quadrennial Defense Review will say relative to a carrier strike group for Hawai'i, "but I certainly would not be in any way surprised if it did in fact say our desire is to base a carrier in Hawai'i or Guam and go on to talk about some of the factors it needs to evaluate."

Thompson believes that with the likelihood small for any type of military challenge in Europe, preoccupation with the Pacific growing fast, and whatever the Quadrennial Defense Review says, Hawai'i is likely to attract more of the nation's military capability over the next decade.

He said that would include ships, perhaps special operations forces, and on the Air Force side, more C-17 cargo aircraft (Hickam Air Force Base is getting eight this year), electronics aircraft such as AWACS or Joint STARS, and even bombers such as the B-2 Spirit, famous for its bat-wing design.

Retired Rear Adm. Michael McDevitt, director of strategy and plans at U.S. Pacific Command at Camp Smith in the mid-1990s, and now with the Center for Naval Analyses in Alexandria, Va., said that if the United States wants to keep its military advantage over the Chinese, locating a carrier strike group in Hawai'i would be a great idea.

"(O'ahu) has the capability to absorb more U.S. forces, and I think it gets you closer (to potential hot spots)," McDevitt said. "It keeps your head in the game with regard to East Asia by being in Hawai'i more so than it does on the West Coast."

Reach William Cole at wcole@honoluluadvertiser.com.