What will become the major issue in the big Democratic senatorial primary contest between Sen. Dan Akaka and Rep. Ed Case?

If the most recent Advertiser Hawai'i Poll is to be believed, we don't know yet.

The poll showed a remarkable level of aloha for both Case and Akaka among those who said they intend to be Democratic voters in the upcoming primary election.

Perhaps the most striking thing was that the voters tend to agree with the implicit core message of both Akaka and Case in the campaign. What's up with that?

Case's message is that it is time for a younger generation to step up to the Senate to represent Hawai'i for years to come. That's a way of pointing out that Akaka is aging and will not be around forever.

A robust two-thirds of the self-identified Democratic Primary voters who responded to the poll said they agree or strongly agree with that thesis.

Good news for Case, right?

Well, yes, except then we move on to Akaka's core message, which is that seniority and deep relationships are extremely important for effectiveness in the Senate. Akaka has those qualities in spades while Case would come in as a raw freshman.

Again, nearly two-thirds of the same group of voters say they agree or strongly agree with that proposition as well.

So, yup, the voters want fresh blood, and they want seniority as well. Sounds as if Case and Akaka will have to find other issues to draw lines in the sand over.

One possibility, the Hawai'i Poll suggests, might be the war in Iraq. Case and Akaka have fairly distinct positions on this. Akaka was one of a relatively small group of Senators who voted against the use of force just before we went into Iraq. He is also among a minority of Democrats who support Sen. John Kerry in his call for a withdrawal date.

Case, by contrast, says if he had been in Congress at the time, he probably would have voted to go to war based on the information available at the time. He now has his doubts but says the U.S. must stay the course.

The poll suggests Case may be slightly more in step with voters on this issue than Akaka. But to make this a dealmaker, the lines between the two will have to be much more sharply drawn.

And make no mistake. Those lines will be drawn. This election is far from over.

The "horse race" question between Akaka and Case shows the House member clearly within striking distance, even among a sample restricted to those willing to declare right now they're pulling a Democratic ballot.

Thirty percent of those responding said they will go to the Republican side, which seems unlikely unless some unanticipated controversy erupts in the GOP primary. Another 13 percent have yet to decide. So there's a source of votes Case can be expected to mine.

Bottom line, this could turn out to be a much more heated and tense election than most folks would have predicted.

Jerry Burris is The Advertiser's editorial page editor.

Reach Jerry Burris at jburris@honoluluadvertiser.com.