The failure of the Hawaiian recognition or Akaka bill will generate political fallout for a long time.

The most immediate question is whether this will have much of an impact on the primary election fight between Sen. Daniel K. Akaka and Rep. Ed Case for the Democratic senatorial nomination. Akaka hitched his political reputation to this measure.

At a minimum, the Senate's action dulls Akaka's contention that he needs to be in Congress to see the bill passed. He was there, and it didn't.

Of course, Akaka could argue that this defeat makes it more important than ever that he be returned, since it will be next year at the earliest before this subject is revisited. The senator contends that his network of friends and alliances remains the best hope for the bill.

Case can reply that with the Akaka bill set aside for the moment, it is time to move on to other matters, such as his desire to begin building a new generation of leadership for Hawai'i in the Senate.

Since Case also supports the recognition measure, the best bet is that this issue will slip into second-rank importance in their race.

Back home, the Democrats will undoubtedly use this setback to raise questions about Gov. Linda Lingle's influence in Republican-dominated Washington. One of her key campaign planks four years ago was her promise to use her influence with the Bush administration and Republican senators to get the Akaka bill through.

So much for that.

In the end, Lingle couldn't even manage to keep the Bush administration neutral on the matter. At the very last minute, the Justice Department (saying it spoke for the Bush administration) weighed in firmly against the Akaka bill in a letter to the Senate leadership.

But unlike four years ago, there's a new approach: Lingle this year is unlikely to make much about her close relationship with Bush and his administration in the current campaign. So there will be few opportunities for the Democrats to play the "influence-shminfluence" card anyway.

The biggest political fallout is likely to come within the Hawaiian community. Will this defeat serve as a rallying point for Hawaiians who feel they deserve federal recognition?

If it does, and if the Hawaiian community can come to anything close to a consensus agreement on what steps should come next, it will make up a formidable voting bloc in the fall elections.

The task ahead is to move beyond federal recognition of Hawaiians to the larger issue of Hawaiian self-determination and the myriad programs that focus on Hawaiian betterment, from the Office of Hawaiian Affairs and various federal health and educational programs to Hawaiian Homelands itself.

Candidates who have clear ideas and answers to these issues will find themselves far ahead of the pack as the 2006 election rolls around.

Jerry Burris is The Advertiser's editorial page editor.

Reach Jerry Burris at jburris@honoluluadvertiser.com.