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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Saturday, May 6, 2006

Corporate forecasts upbeat as earnings rise 14 percent in first quarter

By Michael J. Martinez
Associated Press

Exxon Mobil Corp. this week posted the fifth highest quarterly profit for any public company in history. Consumer spending remains robust even as prices at Exxon and other gas stations in the U.S. soar.

ASSOCIATED PRESS LIBRARY PHOTO | April 2006

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NEW YORK — A surge in consumer spending helped corporate America achieve its 16th straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth, and even the return of $3-per-gallon gasoline hasn't deterred companies from issuing upbeat forecasts.

As of yesterday morning, with 423 companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 index reporting earnings for the first quarter, 285, or 67 percent, beat Wall Street forecasts. Sixty-six companies, or 16 percent, matched expectations, while 72, or 17 percent, failed to meet analysts' estimates.

The results extended a corporate winning streak: Over the past eight quarters, 66 percent of S&P 500 companies have beaten estimates, with 15 percent matching and 18 percent below estimates.

The highlight of the quarter was Exxon Mobil Corp. posting the fifth-highest quarterly profit in history, but other industries and sectors also performed well. Earnings rose an average of 14 percent from a year ago, nearly double the historical average, according to Thomson Financial.

"It isn't focused all on energy," said Jeff Kleintop, of PNC Financial Services Group. "We're seeing strength in industrials, retailers, telecom. Even healthcare had a decent quarter."

Despite predictions that economic growth will start to slow, fewer companies have issued profit warnings.

According to Thomson, the ratio of negative to positive profit forecasts stands at 1.9-to-1 for the S&P 500 companies, and 1.5-to-1 for all companies that have reported first-quarter earnings. The historic average ratios stand at 2-to-1 for the S&P 500 and 2.2-to-1 for all companies.

"Overall, we still expect annual earnings growth of about 8 percent year-over-year, and it's likely we may edge that number up a little bit," said Scott Wren, of A.G. Edwards & Sons. "It's really looking pretty good, all things considered."

Wren said high gasoline prices won't have a pronounced effect on consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy's activity.

"Maybe if it gets to $6 per gallon, and I'm not saying it will, but maybe then we'll see people cut back," Wren said.

Instead, the slowdown in corporate earnings is expected to come from higher costs incurred by businesses.

Companies recently have been passing profits to shareholders through higher dividends and share buyback programs. However, capital spending also has continued to grow, Kleintop said.

Still, this could be the final quarter of double-digit profit growth as companies start to conform to historic averages.

"I think for the most part, we're prepared to see that lower growth," Kleintop said. "I don't see companies being punished for it at this point unless they really slow down."