A goofy picture of President Bush scratching his head appears under the banner "What a Mess!" — a mailer from the Democratic Party of Hawai'i that claims the state has suffered from the war in Iraq, the federal No Child Left Behind education law, cutbacks to Medicare and Medicaid, and higher gasoline and electricity prices.

The target of the mailer is not Gov. Linda Lingle or one of the GOP candidates for federal office, but Tracy Okubo, a Republican state policy analyst campaigning in state House District 25 (Makiki, Tantalus).

President Bush's job approval rating was 40 percent in the Islands in October, according to the New Jersey polling firm SurveyUSA, and state Democrats are trying to use the public's disenchantment with his administration to help their candidates in Tuesday's elections.

Bush has been a symbol for Democrats nationally this year as they try to regain control of Congress. Republican candidates for U.S. House and U.S. Senate, and Republican governors like Lingle, who campaigned for Bush on the Mainland in 2004, expected questions from Democrats about whether they support the president on the war or education reform.

But linking Bush to Republican state House candidates like Okubo shows that state Democrats prefer running against the president this year than against Lingle, whose job approval rating was 67 percent in October.

"National policy does have an impact locally," said Mike McCartney, the chairman of the Democratic Party of Hawai'i. "Just as Democrats have to take responsibility for their party, so do the Republicans."

Sam Aiona, the state's GOP chairman, said the Democrats are desperate to demonize Bush because they are afraid to take on the popular Lingle. The governor, who is favored to win re-election over former Mililani state Sen. Randall Iwase, has been the focal point of the GOP's advertising, and Republican state candidates have been encouraged to use her image in their mailers.

"This election is about Linda Lingle and the good work she has done," Aiona said. "They're grasping when they have to attack George Bush."

Campaign mailers reviewed by The Advertiser and interviews with party strategists show that Democrats are using the war and other Bush administration policies to try to make the election a referendum on Bush, while Republicans want to make it about Lingle. One Democratic mailer aimed at a state Republican candidate asks: "Do you really trust George Bush and the Republicans with your children's education?"

"Right now, Bush is in terrible shape," said Dan Boylan, a history professor at the University of Hawai'i-West O'ahu. "And that hurts every Republican who stood around and cheered for him up until very recently."

The Democrats' use of Bush as a campaign theme also folds into their get-out-the-vote strategy, which is directed at about 70,000 infrequent voters the party believes are apt to vote a straight Democratic ticket. These voters, strategists believe, are likely to be motivated by messages critical of Bush and, if they turn out, could help Democratic candidates even if overall voter turnout is moderate or low. Labor unions and individual campaigns also have voter turnout operations hitting core Democrats.

Republican strategists were more reluctant to publicly describe their get-out-the-vote plans. But Lingle's operation, working off a voter file that advisers say has become increasingly sophisticated since her first unsuccessful campaign for governor in 1998, could help drive voters toward other Republican candidates.

Direct mail is often the weapon of choice in state campaigns because it is generally cheaper than television or radio advertising and can be sent to specific types of voters. Mailers also do not usually get the same kind of news media or public scrutiny as other ads unless there are complaints.

Democratic strategists involved in state House campaigns are tailoring mailers around issues such as traffic and education to help their candidates show distinctions with Republicans. One mailer cites high gas, housing and grocery prices and asks, "After four years of Republican rule, can you afford to still live here?"

Republicans are using issues such as traffic, local control over education, a three-strikes penalty for violent offenders, and affordable housing.

Republicans are trying to inoculate their state House incumbents against any last-minute hit pieces with mailers this week that caution that the Democrats may deliberately mislead voters with ads. Both major political parties have done opposition research and have sent negative mailers into some of the more competitive House districts.

In House District 25, both Okubo and her opponent, Della Au Belatti, an attorney for Senate Democrats, said they want voters in Makiki and Tantalus to look at their qualifications and positions on state issues such as affordable housing, access to healthcare and crime rather than on federal issues like the war.

Okubo, who has sent out mailers with pictures of her with Lingle, said she was a little disappointed about being lumped in with Bush. "I wish that we could have just continued to focus on the issues important to our community and to our state," she said.

In the "What a Mess!" mailer, Democrats claim Belatti would help end the war, ensure student achievement standards are effective and fair, and stabilize and strengthen Medicare, a lofty agenda for a newcomer in the state House.

Belatti said she is grateful for endorsements from powerful Democrats like U.S. Sen. Daniel K. Inouye, U.S. Sen. Daniel Akaka, U.S. Rep. Neil Abercrombie and U.S. Rep. Ed Case, who appear in her own mailers, but her political interest is local.

"I really hope voters are looking at Tracy and I and what we would do at the state level," she said.

Reach Derrick DePledge at ddepledge@honoluluadvertiser.com.