The number of South Korean visitors to Hawai'i could skyrocket from last year's 37,000 to more than 200,000 if the U.S. visa waiver status goes forward as expected by early 2009, according to industry officials attending the Hawai'i Tourism Authority's conference.

That was probably the brightest news over the two-day Hawai'i Tourism Conference, which wrapped up yesterday at the Hawai'i Convention Center.

Michael Merner, managing director for Hawai'i Tourism Asia, which markets the state to Asian destinations outside of Japan, was among the industry experts briefing more than 600 people who attended the conference.

Merner said the industry widely anticipates South Korea will obtain visa waiver status, which would eliminate the final major barrier restricting South Korean travel to Hawai'i. That would allow Koreans the freedom to travel to Hawai'i on the same basis as visitors from Japan.

"We project an 80 percent increase in arrivals to Hawai'i within the first 12 months," Merner said. And another 80 percent the following year, and then 40 percent more, pushing South Korea into the fourth-largest source market for Hawai'i, behind the Mainland U.S., Japan and Canada.

Merner said the Visit USA Committee in South Korea has an even more optimistic future estimate: 225,000 Korean visitors to Hawai'i within two years of securing visa waiver status.

He noted that the number of Koreans visiting other countries already shot up over the last decade, increasing to 11.6 million in 2006, quadruple the number of just 10 years before.

50,000 PROJECTED

Merner said a total of 37,777 Koreans visited Hawai'i in 2006, and an increase in flight capacity in 2007 means his office is projecting 50,000 Hawai'i arrivals from South Korea in 2007. That would be a 30 percent increase and almost double the arrival levels of just two years ago.

He said China also is projecting another doubling in the next two to three years, but the bigger increases will require a relaxation of visa restrictions. Merner said experts predict there could be a breakthrough before the 2008 Beijing Olympics. He said government officials may agree to a new program that would ease travel restrictions.

In other developments at the HTA conference, Takashi Ichikura, executive director of Hawai'i Tourism Japan, defended the group's "Smoking with Aloha" campaign, which has drawn fire from a variety of critics who label the attempt culturally insensitive and misguided.

Ichikura said the campaign aimed to counter a misimpression left in Japan that Hawai'i's 2006 smoking restrictions effectively banned smoking in the Islands. He said tourism industry officials believe that message was discouraging some Japanese from traveling to Hawai'i, especially the booking of large groups.

"We're not encouraging smoking," Ichikura said. "We're only trying to inform people where you can smoke."

He said the campaign included portable ashtrays to help pass the message that smoking could occur in limited areas but should be done responsibly: "Smoke with care to other people."

Ichikura said the campaign got a good reaction in Japan, a country that embraces many Hawaiian themes and now hosts more hula dancers than Hawai'i, the point of origin for the native dance.

"Unfortunately, some people are getting our message wrong," he said.

LINGLE CHALLENGE

Earlier in the conference, Gov. Linda Lingle and filmmaker Edgy Lee urged officials to keep in mind Hawai'i's unique nature, culture and character.

Lingle said it was frustrating to have some folks in Japan tell her that Hawai'i needs new activities to keep luring visitors, a message that echoed what she'd heard in 1995 when she was there as Maui mayor.

She said they kept saying the same thing: "You have to have new activities. Every time they said that, I felt worse and worse. And I wanted to tell them we're not an amusement park. It's not like building a new ride because everyone has already ridden all the old rides before."

Lingle said Hawai'i's people, land and culture make it a special place. "We're a unique part of the world," she said. "We're not a place that's going to invent a new attraction every year to amuse people because they're easily distracted."

Lingle challenged industry officials to find ways to keep the industry thriving without going too far. "It is going to take innovative thinking," she said.

Travel executive Scott Ahlsmith, vice president of Global Network Solutions, has been in the travel business since 1972. He noted that most travelers expect easy computer access. He cited a recent study that said "75 percent take their laptops on vacation."

Reach Robbie Dingeman at rdingeman@honoluluadvertiser.com.