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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Tuesday, December 4, 2007

Hawaii home prices have flattened out

By Andrew Gomes
Advertiser Staff Writer

Sale prices of existing O'ahu single-family homes this year have been more or less flat, and last month they couldn't have been any flatter as the $610,000 median price was unchanged from a year ago.

"It's been pretty steady," said Connie Carvill, principal broker of Kailua-based real estate firm Carvill & Co.

The Honolulu Board of Realtors reported the median condominium price in November was $315,000, up 1.6 percent from $310,000 in the same month last year.

Sales volume, however, continued to be significantly lower. There were 245 single-family homes sold in November, down 16.4 percent from 293 in the same month last year. O'ahu condo sales were down 10 percent to 379 last month from 421 a year earlier.

It has been a general trend this year for fewer sales at slightly raised median prices in a market that has been cooling for two years after a doubling in the median price between 2001 and 2005.

November's single-family home median price was the second lowest for any month this year, after $600,000 in January. However, similar month-to-month declines occurred last year (October to November) and in 2005 (November to December).

"I think it's more of a seasonal (change)," said Chason Ishii, president of Coldwell Banker Pacific Properties. "The median sales price is kind of holding strong."

Out of the first 11 months this year, median single-family home prices were higher in six months, lower in four months and unchanged last month.

This year through November, the median single-family home price is $645,000, up 2.4 percent from $630,000 in the same period last year. The number of sales was down 8.3 percent to 3,387 from 3,695 in the same period.

The year-to-date median condo price is $325,000, up 4.8 percent from $310,000 a year ago. The number of sales was down 13.1 percent to 5,146 from 5,922 in the same period.

In September, the University of Hawai'i Economic Research Organization forecast a 0.97 percent rise this year for O'ahu's median single-family home resale price, followed by a 0.63 percent decline next year.

UHERO and other local economists generally predict that O'ahu home prices will flatten over the next couple of years and not drop significantly unless there is a shock to the state economy that reverses job and income growth, creates a population exodus or boosts interest rates dramatically.

Helping sustain home prices is a state economy that continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace, as well as low unemployment, rising personal income, limited new-home construction and vibrant demand from out-of-state retirees and investors.

Ishii said buyers from Europe, Canada and other places benefiting from the weak U.S. dollar are also helping sustain relatively good demand.

Inventory of single-family homes for sale has risen for most of this year, from a 2007 low of 1,714 in March to 1,952 last month. But inventory has been below last year's monthly level for the past six months.

Condo inventory last month was 2,442, below 2,679 a year ago and above the 2007 low of 2,238 in March and May.

Carvill said there appear to be fewer prospective buyers in the market, but that many sellers are reacting by pricing their homes more realistically.

"If homes are priced realistically, then they sell," she said. "If something's going to sell, it should sell in the first two or three weeks."

The median number of days that single-family homes spent on the market before selling last month was 53, down from 62 days a year earlier but up from 41 in October.

Condos spent a median 42 days on the market before selling, down from 50 a year ago but up from 37 in October.

Honolulu's real-estate market has fared much better in recent months than in many cities on the Mainland, some of which have experienced sharp increases in foreclosures stemming from the subprime lending crisis.

Nationally, sales of existing homes fell for an eighth straight month in October even as more properties came on the U.S. housing market, driving the supply of homes up for sale to the highest level in 22 years, the National Association of Realtors reported last month.

The seasonally adjusted sales dropped 1.2 percent to an annualized pace of 4.97 million last month, the NAR said.

The sales pace nationally stands at the lowest seen since 1999, when the group began tracking combined sales of single-family homes and condominiums.

Sales are down 20.7 percent in the past year and are down 31 percent from the peak of 7.21 million two years ago.

Reach Andrew Gomes at agomes@honoluluadvertiser.com.

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