NEW YORK — One of the clearest signs that retailers are nervous this holiday season is likely to be found at Wal-Mart stores this weekend: stacks of Webkinz.

The fiercely popular Webkinz, plush toys that children collect and use the Internet to interact with, until recently were only sold in gift shops and other independent retailers. But Wal-Mart Stores Inc. scored a limited-time deal to sell Webkinz, hoping the cute little animals will draw shoppers and give the world's largest retailer a respectable season.

A difficult retail environment — evidenced by mixed sales reports retailers released yesterday — has other merchants straining to come up with come-ons and promotions. But retailers already know this is going to be a consumer-driven season, more so than usual. If the exclusives and special deals don't work, stores already planning big discounts between now and Dec. 25 will find themselves having to slash prices even more heavily — and possibly see their profits falter along the way.

BUSINESS WANING

Yesterday's reports showed that retailers had a solid Thanksgiving weekend, but business has dropped off even more than normal in the days since. Target warned that it may not meet its earnings-per-share growth goal for the fourth quarter if sales don't improve significantly.

The "consumer splurged on Black Friday and then she was spent," said Wachovia Capital Markets LLC analyst John D. Morris. "The question is, when will she resurface?"

The bulk of holiday shopping has come later and later in recent years, with the last 10 days before Christmas the most critical for retailers. But there are often many signs between Thanksgiving and that final run-up to the holiday that tell retailers how strong sales are likely to be. And if they continue to see more indications of a troubling spending slowdown, many are likely to cut prices even further.

November's results showed that high-end shoppers are comfortable splurging, while middle- and lower-income shoppers, unsure about their finances amid rising energy prices and ongoing housing problems, tried to spend as little as possible and looked for big discounts. The trend benefited warehouse club operators such as Costco and luxury stores such as Saks.

Wal-Mart posted a modest sales increase, helped by strong sales of pharmaceuticals and groceries, but mall-based apparel stores, including Limited Brands, reported sluggish sales.

Many department stores, including Macy's, reported robust sales, but that was mostly due to a quirk in the calendar that resulted in an additional week after Thanksgiving falling into the month of November compared with December last year. The concern is that when November and December sales are looked at together, the critically important holiday shopping season will be a disappointment.

UNEASE IN THE INDUSTRY

The UBS-International Council of Shopping Centers tally of 43 retailers posted a 3.5 percent gain in same-store sales in November, but excluding the calendar shift, Michael P. Niemira, chief economist, said the tally would have been up 2.5 percent. The tally is based on sales or sales at stores opened at least a year, and are considered the key reason for a retailer's health.

"In many respects, it is the same story, and the worries are the same," Niemira said. "There is still unease throughout the industry."

So, retailers are trying to be aggressive in luring customers — Macy's, for example, is bombarding customers with discount coupons. And they're trying to be creative; at Banana Republic, customers who bring in used sweaters that are in good condition will get a 30 percent discount on a new sweater now through Wednesday.

The one bright spot for retailers is that the job market has held up. Analysts are awaiting today's employment report from the Labor Department and are looking for clues as to whether the Federal Reserve will feel the need to cut interest rates again to keep the economy out of a recession.

Yesterday, the department reported a 15,000 drop in the number of first-time jobless benefits claims made last week, a sign of fewer layoffs. However, analysts noted there is a great deal of volatility in jobless claims around holiday periods.