LOS ANGELES — From the pool parties at the Golden Globes to the slushy streets of the Sundance Film Festival, we kept our ears open — for this thing called Oscar buzz. At intimate studio dinners in L.A. (chicken for a hundred) to the champagne crush at Cannes, we listened for the zzzzz sound. Producers whispered knowingly. And the publicists spun us like sheets at an all-night Laundromat.

We dialed a Vegas bookie. We slogged through the blogs. And we even spoke with a dozen members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (out of 5,800 eligible to vote). And so now we're prepared to do something crazy ...

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... And predict that Helen Mirren is going to win an Academy Award for "The Queen." There. We said it. And guess what? So has everybody else.

And yet, does one not secretly pray to the movie gods that when they rip open the envelope tonight on ABC the winner will NOT be the incredible Mirren (who has won everything) but the edible Penélope Cruz ("Volver")? A rio of mascara would flow. But sadly, the oddsmakers say no.

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This is giving the pro prognosticators the fits. "Nobody knows what will happen," writes the insider Anne Thompson in her Hollywood Reporter blog Risky Business. "This is the widest open I can remember it in years," says Variety editor Peter Bart, who's a 30-year academy veteran.

Here's our math:

"Babel" is a serious (+3), complicated (-1) ensemble starring Brad Pitt (+1) and Cate Blanchett (+2), who spends most of the film having been shot and needing a pee (-1). The film also features two best-supporting actress nominees (+2), the newcomers Adriana Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi, who are happy for all the attention, but who aren't going to win, for a polyglot (-2) movie about how life is random (-1), violent (+2) and unhappy (-2). Yet "Babel" could be this year's "Crash" with Moroccan goat herders (-1).

Funny, though, that being funny might not help "Little Miss Sunshine," which has a tad of "indie" edge (+1), is beloved by audiences (+3) and stars Alan Arkin as a heroin-happy grandpappy (+2) who dies in what is unfortunately a feel-good comedy (-4). Unfortunate because the last comedy to win best picture was "Annie Hall" during the Carter administration.

Speaking of ancient history. "Letters From Iwo Jima" has been embraced by the critics (-2) for its humanity, but no movie entirely in Japanese (-4) or any foreign language (-1) has ever won this category. "Letters" was directed by Clint Eastwood (+3), but virtually nobody has seen it (-3). Plus, it's a companion piece to "Flags of Our Fathers," which got skunked (-2), except for two nominations for sound mixing and editing, which even a sound editor will tell you is kind of sad.

Again with "The Queen." Good, but on nobody's shortlist.

Finally, if you put a loaded .45 to the head of conventional wisdom, it would whimper "The Departed." It stars Jack Nicholson (+1) as a mobster (+3) alongside Oscar acting contenders (+2) Mark Wahlberg and Leo DiCaprio (plus a great Alec Baldwin and Matt Damon) in a guy's-guy movie (-1) directed by Martin "Gimme My Damn Oscar" Scorsese (+3).

So, while "The Departed" appears to have a bit more go-juice, this year might produce that rare, precious Oscars ingredient, called suspense, especially if voters split their tickets and give Scorsese best director then turn on him in the best-picture category.

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An easy one. Let a couple contestants put it in their own words.

At the luncheon for Oscar nominees at the Beverly Hilton, Will Smith suggested that his "Pursuit of Happyness" was inspiring audiences worldwide for its tale of hope, grit and redemption, which may be true, though in this "based on a true story" drama the down-on-his-luck dad becomes a stockbroker — who makes cold calls. Plus, the movie isn't great. But Smith said that the amazing thing for him was acting alongside his real-life son, 8-year-old Jaden Smith. "Everything is different for me because he was in that movie with me," the elder Smith said. "I swear I don't need an award."

So, OK, no award.

When Ryan Gosling learned he was nominated for the crack-addicted teacher in "Half Nelson," he said, "I don't think anyone is more shocked than me." The critics loved him, but the film garnered only $2.7 million.

Backstage after winning at the Golden Globes, Peter O'Toole, 74, said that when people ask him what "Venus" is about, he says it is the story of "a dirty old man and a young slut of a woman." There are a lot of Oscar voters who would get into that — and a lot who won't. O'Toole, who has been nominated eight times without a win, appears to be bridesmaid again this year.

Because the envelope will read "Forest Whitaker," for his volcanic turn as Idi Amin in the "The Last King of Scotland." At the academy lunch, Whitaker said about his Oscar aspirations: "I'm hoping I'll have one of the greatest nights of my life." And if his limo driver doesn't get in an accident on the way to the Kodak Theatre, he will.

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Stephen Frears for "The Queen" is a no. Ditto Clint Eastwood for "Iwo Jima," who has been honored up to here. Paul Greengrass made a gripping, respectful, moving work in "United 93" but probably not his Oscar (too real). Alejandro González Iñárritu, for "Babel," a possible. But everybody says that Scorsese appears headed toward his first Oscar, after striking out five times at bat.