The Hawai'i-based general in charge of northern Iraq yesterday warned of the "consequences of a rapid withdrawal" from the country, but said that U.S. forces in the north could be reduced by half beginning in January.

Maj. Gen. Benjamin R. Mixon, who commands the 25th Infantry Division, said he had corresponded with Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno, the No. 2 U.S. commander in Iraq, about the plan and that with continued progress, there could be a reduction.

Mixon made his comments from Contingency Operating Base Speicher near Tikrit via video teleconference during a Washington news briefing.

"I have looked at it from a variety of different ways," Mixon said. "(The assessment) is based on the enemy situation, but I honestly believe that over time — I currently have five or six brigades depending on how you count the number of battalions — that given the enemy situation and as you move forward, after about an 18-month period of time, you could probably reduce that (force) by about half."

A brigade has between 3,000 and 4,000 soldiers. There are about 160,000 U.S. troops in Iraq, including 30,000 that were sent as part of the so-called "surge" to boost security.

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates was asked yesterday about Mixon's assessment, and if he was getting similar projections from other regional commanders in Iraq.

"That's the first I've heard of that," Gates said.

FOCUS ON STRATEGY

More than 7,000 soldiers from Schofield Barracks that are under Mixon's command have spent the last year in northern Iraq. Their mission was extended in the country to up to 15 months, and units including the aviation brigade will start rotating back to Hawai'i in September.

Mixon's comments came with Congress embroiled in troop withdrawal debate, the House passing a bill to pull out most combat troops by April, and two key Republicans, casting aside President Bush's calls for patience, proposing legislation that would restrict the mission of U.S. troops by the fall.

The plan would remove U.S. forces from policing civil strife and sectarian violence — which puts them most at risk — and confine the mission to protecting borders, training Iraqi security forces and targeting terrorists.

Mixon said the debate over Iraq should focus on the "end state" desired by the United States and in the region.

"It cannot be a strategy that is based on, 'Well, we need to leave.' That's not a strategy, that's a withdrawal," Mixon said.

He said he envisions a drawn-down force in northern Iraq in a "training and assistance mode" with the ability to react to threats and to provide attack aviation and fixed-wing aircraft and medical support.

Mixon appeared to be navigating a course between calls for a pull-out and the long-term challenges of establishing capable Iraqi self-governance.

A progress report mandated by Congress has found "satisfactory" results by the Baghdad government in only eight of 18 requirements.

"I certainly understand the very, very important decisions that have to be made over the next couple of months concerning our mission in Iraq, but it's vitally important to the security of the United States of America in this region," Mixon said. "Now that the surge has reached its full strength, we are seeing definitive progress."

But Mixon also acknowledged that military operations are one part of the equation.

"There are political things that have to be accomplished," he said in a reference to the Iraqi government, "and most importantly, we have to win the confidence of the Iraqi people, and we're working very hard on that every day."

BATTLING INSURGENTS

Mixon commands a Pennsylvania-sized region of the country north of Baghdad that includes violent Diyala province, where an operation to root out militants called "Arrowhead Ripper" had been under way since June.

Insurgents forced out of Baghdad took up operations to the northeast in the area of Baqouba. Elements of two Army Stryker Brigades from Fort Lewis, Wash., were moved to Diyala to counter the threat.

On Memorial Day, two Schofield pilots in an OH-58D Kiowa Warrior helicopter were shot down and killed in Diyala.

During the "Arrowhead Ripper" operation, U.S. and Iraqi forces killed more than 90 al-Qaida operatives, which Mixon characterized as Iraqis who have linked themselves to the "al-Qaida ideology."

Troops faced 24 houses booby-trapped with explosives in door-to-door checks, Mixon said.

The progress is better elsewhere. In Salah ad Din province north and west of Baghdad, and Mixon said, "we are seeing Sunni tribes increasingly coming forth and expressing an interest to resist al-Qaida."

Mixon said he has recommended that Nineva province be turned over to provincial Iraqi control in August.

The more than 7,000 Schofield soldiers are looking ahead to leaving Iraq in the fall as about 4,000 more with the O'ahu-based Stryker brigade prepare for the unit's first combat tour to the country.

The brigade's more than 300 Stryker armored vehicles will be shipped to the West Coast later in July for a month of gunnery exercises in the California desert and another month of certification war games at the National Training Center.

From there they will be placed on cargo ships and head to Kuwait for delivery to Iraq. The 19-ton vehicles, over which the Army has maintained a low-profile on O'ahu in the face of a federal environmental lawsuit, are expected to be gone for 18 months with a deployment of up to 15 months.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Reach William Cole at wcole@honoluluadvertiser.com.