A Pacific force realignment means 8,300 Marines will be moved from Okinawa, Japan, to Guam, and the U.S. territory will be built up to better handle warplanes and aircraft carriers.

But a flattop is not part of the mix in Hawai'i, the top U.S. commander in the region said.

Determining the best force distribution has been one of several focus areas for Adm. William J. Fallon in the two years he has led U.S. Pacific Command at Camp Smith.

"I don't envision an aircraft carrier home-based here as part of that in the near future from necessity or practical terms," Fallon told The Advertiser.

Although the Navy had been examining whether to base the carrier USS Carl Vinson in Puget Sound, Wash., Hawai'i or Guam after major renovation work is completed on the East Coast, the expectation is that the big ship will go to Puget Sound.

A carrier is forward-based in Yokosuka, Japan, and five others are expected to be kept on the West Coast.

"As we look to the potential contingencies in the region, if we had the one (carrier in Japan) and five back on the West Coast, given the Navy's new construct for how they keep readiness and availability with the Fleet Response Plan, I think we're in pretty darn good shape and we can move these carriers out here pretty quickly," Fallon said.

The Fleet Response Plan requires that six of the Navy's 12 aircraft carriers be available for deployment within 30 days and another two be available in 90 days.

Costs in the billions of dollars for basing a carrier either in Guam or Hawai'i worked against both locations as the Navy has sought to minimize ship transit time to the western Pacific and potential hot spots.

Fallon said what people tend to forget is that Japan pays three-quarters of the cost for a carrier battle group to be based in Yokosuka.

Fallon spoke with The Advertiser as he plans to leave March 12 for Tampa, Fla., to head up U.S. Central Command and oversee the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Fallon said he thinks "we're making progress on many fronts (in the Pacific). "I'm very optimistic about this region. ... We have general stability and security."

There have been "hiccups" over the past couple of years, and one of the most troubling turns was North Korea's test detonation of an underground nuclear device in October, Fallon said. But there are now "indications that things are going to move forward in a positive direction" with the North pledging to start dismantling its nuclear program in exchange for aid.

Relations with China are improving, Fallon said. He made three trips to China to increase mutual understanding and lessen chances of conflict begun by mistake.

"There are still lots of issues, many things which we agree to disagree on, and lots of things that we haven't figured out yet," Fallon said, "but it's generally moving, I think, in a positive direction."

Fallon said the U.S. plans to retain an enduring presence in the western Pacific, and Guam will be built up for aircraft carrier visits.

"This does not mean a home port. (We're) not interested in that now. Don't see a need for it now," Fallon said. "But we do see a need for being able to keep a significant presence out there if something were to arise."

The exercise Valiant Shield off Guam in June brought together three aircraft carriers, more than 300 aircraft and other forces in the biggest U.S. Navy and Air Force presence in the western Pacific since the Vietnam War.

Moving the 8,300 Marines to Guam by about 2014, and with remaining Marines in Japan and about 6,500 on Oahu, will result in a balanced footprint and "give us a really good response for the future," Fallon said.

Hawai'i's contingent of Marines could grow by 800 to 1,000 as part of possible command and control changes at Kane'ohe Bay.

Reach William Cole at wcole@honoluluadvertiser.com.